Market Observation: The Uncertainty Of The Global Economic Downturn Led To The Subsequent Volatility Of Cotton Prices

The US Department of Agriculture reduced the US cotton output by 412000 tons and 129000 tons respectively in August and September reports. Although some weather problems occurred in the main US cotton production areas, the overall impact is still relatively limited, and attention is paid to the subsequent output adjustment. At present, American cotton has begun to harvest. As of the week of October 6, the harvest rate of American cotton was 26%, 20% the previous week, 23% the same period last year, and 22% the five-year average. Texas, the main cotton producing area in the United States, began to suffer from drought in the middle of August, but the overall extent is not large. At present, cotton is entering the harvest stage.

Although the price of American cotton has fallen to a relatively low level, the demand for American cotton will continue to be weak after 2024/2025, especially China's purchase of American cotton has been invisible. By the week of September 26, 21700 tons of American upland cotton had been contracted weekly in 2024/2025, an increase of 9% month on month and a decrease of 60% year on year; Vietnam signed 6600 tons and Pakistan signed 5800 tons. China's contract performance of American cotton in 2024/2025 is always biased, the port inventory is still high, and the willingness to import American cotton is not strong.

At present, the cotton harvest in Brazil in 2024 has ended. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association first released the forecast of Brazilian cotton production in 2024/2025. The area of new cotton is expected to increase to 2.14 million hectares, and the output is expected to be 3.97 million tons. The cotton output in 2023/2024 is expected to be 3.68 million tons. Brazil's annual export also surpassed that of the United States to become the world's first exporter. In 2023/2024 (August July), the cumulative export of cotton reached 2.681 million tons, an increase of 85% year on year. Its export volume surpassed that of the United States to become the world's largest cotton exporter in 2023/2024.

India's cotton planting area will decrease in 2024. As of September 20, 2024, India's cotton planting area in 2024/2025 will be 11.28 million hectares, 1067000 hectares lower than the previous year, down 8.6% year on year. The cotton planting in India has basically ended. Driven by the economic benefits, part of the land in this year was converted from cotton to rice. It is expected that the cotton planting area in India will be within 11.3 million hectares this year, with a year-on-year decrease of about 8.5%. According to the output estimate of the US Department of Agriculture, India's output in 2024/2025 is expected to be 5.225 million tons, a decrease of 392000 tons over the previous year. India is also one of the few major cotton producing countries to reduce output, and most other major cotton producing countries will increase or yield.

In the near future, the downstream pure cotton yarn has insufficient inflation momentum. At present, the mainstream purchase price of 40% lint of machine picked seed cotton is mostly 6.2~6.4 yuan/kg, and the purchase price in southern Xinjiang is lower than that in northern Xinjiang, so the overall purchase price is quite different. Ginning plant has strong risk awareness and is cautious in acquisition. After entering the peak season, the pure cotton yarn transaction was OK, but the price rise was still weak. In addition, domestic textile and clothing exports in August performed generally, with an overall growth rate lower than that of India, Vietnam, etc.

To sum up, the US cotton output may be revised upward, and the harvest in Brazil is basically completed. Although the global production increase has weakened compared with the previous period, the supply in the new year is still sufficient. The domestic peak season performance is average, and attention is paid to the acquisition of new cotton. Due to weak demand, Zheng Mian's short-term upward space is limited, or it returns to the shock trend.