Interpretation Of The Difference Between RMB Depreciation And Emerging Economies

At the beginning of the horse year, Southeast Asia, Latin America, etc. emerging market The country's economy has been severely shocked. Not only has the stock market and bond market suffered "double kill", but also currency depreciation has not been spared. In the academic circles, the Federal Reserve's exiting QE is the main reason. Although official data show that China has not yet seen large-scale capital flight yet, the RMB exchange rate has also suffered from a cold spell. In the declining trend of neighboring countries, the RMB exchange rate has also seen a rare sustained depreciation.

Nevertheless, many economists, including Ma Jun, chief economist of the Greater China region, say that China is not the same as these emerging market countries. The nature of China's currency depreciation is also different from those of these countries.

First, China's economic fundamentals are better than those of other emerging economies. Authoritative research institutions including the world bank believe that China's goal of maintaining 7.5% economic growth this year is no problem.

Secondly, China's overall debt level remains in a very healthy range. current account Still maintaining a favorable balance makes China's ability to resist external risks very strong. In addition, China's foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and 800 billion also provide sufficient support for the RMB exchange rate.

Last but not least, China has begun a comprehensive deepening of reform, and international capital is likely to be re attracted to the Chinese market, which will undoubtedly form a great support for the RMB exchange rate.

Under the wave of reform, international economy In the complex environment of changing circumstances, China's economy is experiencing changes from macroscopical weather to mesoscopic weather to microcosmic action. In this case, the change of RMB exchange rate is causing ripples in the macro field and pushing off a series of chain reactions.

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Since 2014, the RMB exchange rate has been suddenly devaluated. In the face of this sudden change, the meso economy began to look restless and the micro subjects were at a loss. Among many medium and micro economic phenomena, real estate has become one of the most concerned areas in the market. An important question is whether the real estate bubble will be punctured in the condition of continued devaluation of the RMB.

For this problem, the phenomenon we have observed at present is that, despite the fact that there are some hot money escaping factors behind the depreciation of the RMB, in fact, when China's economy is still healthy and the economic development is still at a relatively high speed, international capital has not substantially reduced the power and capability of China. From the perspective of capital, real estate will not be affected by exchange rate changes too much.

But it is undeniable that the real estate market is a market which is greatly influenced by expectations. No matter the upstream local governments, the real estate developers in the middle reaches or the buyers in the lower reaches, they will adjust their behaviors according to their expectations. This expectation is due to a certain factor and the consensus will inevitably lead to the expectation of the whole market. At present, in the process of domestic interest rate marketization and real estate tax legislation, the market has begun to look down on real estate, and some cities have even shown signs of selling. On this basis, devaluation will inevitably lead to further changes in people's psychological anticipation, and this change in psychological expectation is often the prelude to market change.