Market Observation: Textile Enterprises Are Cautious About Their Confidence In The Future Consumer Market

With the easing of Sino US economic and trade relations, although the United States has reduced and increased tariffs, the comprehensive tax rate is still high, which makes enterprises more conservative in their confidence in the future consumer market.

From the perspective of orders, the traditional "three gold and four silver" The peak sales season did not appear this year. The number of new orders received was less than expected. The problem of inventory backlog of finished products continued to exist. The boundary between the low and high seasons in the textile industry was increasingly blurred. The lack of demand in the peak season has become a common phenomenon in the past two years. Although the economic and trade relaxation between China and the United States in May promoted the activity of downstream customers' inquiry and order placement, it still needs to be observed whether these demands can be converted into long-term stable orders. In this context, enterprises, in order to avoid risks, often adopt the strategy of purchasing raw materials on demand and reducing inventory.

In terms of futures market, Zheng Mian yarn futures showed an upward trend in the past week, with the main contract CY2507 rising by 6.29%, while the main contract CF2509 of Zheng Mian rose by 6.35% over the same period, and the cotton yarn futures showed a more prominent increase. The driving forces behind it are diverse. The mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the United States attracts funds to flow into the market. The current price inversion of C32S cotton yarn is in urgent need of repair. In 2025, the export data of cotton yarn and cotton cloth will increase significantly year on year. In addition, the domestic introduction of a series of economic stimulus policies, the central bank's reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates and other benefits will make the cotton yarn market as a consumer terminal more responsive. At the same time, since late April, some small and medium-sized textile enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan and other places have reduced their production, reducing the supply of cotton yarn market, further boosting the rise of futures prices.

However, cotton yarn futures continued to rise and faced greater pressure, with the main force CY2507 contract hitting 20000 yuan/ The resistance level per ton fails, and there may be a risk of subsequent correction. At the domestic demand level, the cotton textile and clothing markets entered the slack season, the operating rate of middle and downstream enterprises continued to decline, the production and sales of cotton yarn were blocked, the new orders of textile enterprises above the scale were shrinking, the inventory of finished products was gradually rising, the profitability of low count cotton yarn was poor, and some mainland cotton mills had increased losses, which could only be dealt with by reducing production. In terms of international trade, during the 90 day tariff buffer period between China and the United States, the promotion of Xinjiang cotton yarn sales was limited, new orders were slowly promoted, and the tariff level was still high; Many countries strengthened the control of entrepot trade, and the difficulty of China's cotton textile bypass export increased sharply, which hindered the expansion of indirect exports to the United States and Europe; The expectation of RMB appreciation has also weakened the export competitiveness of domestic cotton textiles and clothing to a certain extent.

At present, although textile enterprises maintain stable operation, in a complex market environment, only by closely tracking market dynamics and optimizing business strategies in time can they effectively cope with many challenges.