Market Analysis: The Market Order Is Not Expected To Be Clear, And The New Cotton Harvest Is Concerned

 

On the first trading day after the holiday, Zheng Mian's main contract rose and fell back, closing at 17600 yuan/ton. During the domestic holidays, the cotton center of gravity of ICE period moved down slightly, and the USDA monthly supply and demand report was followed after the festival. When harvesting new cotton in China, pay attention to the price game between cotton farmers and ginners.

When harvesting new cotton in China, pay attention to the price game between cotton farmers and ginners. Huarong Rongda Futures said that the holiday market expected a further increase in the yield reduction of cotton in northern Xinjiang. From the current cotton purchase, some cotton fields have been picked, but farmers are not eager to sell, and the overall willingness to support the price is strong, which may to some extent support the purchase price of seed cotton in the short term. At present, although the downstream market has not seen the increase of new orders, according to the previous research, the cotton inventory of textile mills is mostly maintained until the end of October, and the overall operating rate is stable despite a slight decline. In this context, textile mills have a certain demand for cotton replenishment. However, it should be noted that from the current sales of reserve cotton, even during the holiday period, there are still reserve cotton to be released, and the overall transaction is good. The continuous release of old cotton and the release of import cotton quotas all show the willingness to stabilize the price at the policy end from the side.

As for the evolution of market logic, ITC Futures said that the current centralized opening price of machine picked new cotton has not been settled, the downstream consumption peak season is not prosperous, and cotton yarn traders are selling goods in a large area. Throughout the fourth quarter, the rush to harvest new cotton or promote cotton prices to rise, but with the determination of new cotton acquisition costs, the supply volume in the new year, and the decline of downstream consumption, it is expected that cotton prices will rise and fall. In the short term, focus on Xinjiang seed cotton's centralized opening price and sales progress.