Sticky Short Enterprises Have Approached The Volume Of The Spring Festival, Will The Pre-Sale Price Drop To The Bottom? When Can The Library Be Replenishment?

Market brief

In December 18th, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. planned to purchase 7000 tons of Xinjiang cotton, with a turnover of 200 tons, with a turnover rate of 2.86%. The average price was 13355 yuan / ton, down 42 yuan / ton on the 17 day, and the highest price was 13355 yuan / ton, which was 60 yuan / ton lower than that on the 17 day, and the lowest price was 13355 yuan / ton, which was down to 17 yuan per ton on the 17 day. Among them, Xinjiang warehouse clinch a deal of 200 tons, and the mainland warehouse was 0 tons, only Hubei Yinfeng traded.

The main force of zhengmian is going down, and the end of the stock market is short and the demand is not good. Spot quotation continued to be stable, new cotton supply increased steadily, and the downstream cotton yarn market was weak. At present, inventory pressure is generally larger. Cotton spinning enterprises are busy selling goods back to the capital, cotton is used along with picking up, cotton demand side is weak, while the national cotton store keeps going in, but the storage and storage requirements are strict for cotton linen index, and the enthusiasm of the cotton mill is not high. This week turnover rate continues to linger. The supply pressure of the lint spot market is bigger, and the spinning enterprises are getting light. Although the stock of cotton spinning enterprises is gradually decreasing, it is difficult to support the new cotton transaction volume, and the short-term cotton price trend is stable and small.

Acrylonitrile prices continue to consolidate, there are no other guidelines on the news, the downstream factories just need to pick up the goods, the intermediaries are cautious about trading, and the market is waiting for the guidance of factories monthly. The supply of medium and long-term supply is still expected to increase. Acrylic fiber prices continue to be stable, the market is generally trading, downstream factory orders are generally expected, manufacturers have limited enthusiasm for raw materials procurement, prudence and just need to seek mining, and acrylic fiber cost continues to support, manufacturers offer to maintain, it is expected that short-term acrylic prices will remain stable.

According to the statistics of corps Statistics Bureau, the cotton planting area in 2019 was 13 million 191 thousand and 700 mu, an increase of 3%, and the total output of cotton was estimated to be 2 million 120 thousand tons, an increase of 3.6%. Cotton planting area and output increased by two times, a record high.

In December 18th, Zhejiang Zhong Ding textile Limited by Share Ltd issued a publicity document for guidance. According to the documents, according to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's "measures for the management of sponsorship business of securities issuance and listing" and its related provisions, the Zhejiang Zhong Ding textile Limited by Share Ltd signed a counselling agreement with Oriental Citigroup Securities Limited in December 2019, and invited Oriental Citigroup to serve as an advisory body for the initial public offering of shares of China Ding textile company. According to the relevant regulations and requirements, the Oriental Citigroup formulates a counselling plan based on the specific conditions of China Ding textile. This tutorial scheme is scheduled for 3 months, and can be adjusted according to the implementation of the guidance plan and the operation of Chung Ding textile. It is reported that China Ding textile is a product development, design, production and sales, mainly engaged in the production and sale of medium and high grade wool cashmere yarn and all kinds of blended yarn, the main products are semi woollen worsted yarn and woolen yarn.

According to statistics, the export value of textile yarn, fabrics and products at Xinjiang port in 2019 1-11 yuan was 5 billion 770 million yuan, a decrease of 6.51% compared with the same period last year. The export amount of clothing and accessories was 30 billion 186 million yuan, an increase of 22.78% over the same period last year. In 2019 1-11, the import value of cotton at Xinjiang port was 1 billion 375 million yuan, an increase of 22.48% over the same period last year. The import value of textile yarn, fabric and products was 224 million yuan, an increase of 35.77% over the same period last year. The import amount of textile machinery and parts was 617 million yuan, a decrease of 53.34% over the same period.

In December 16th, the listing of PTA and methanol options was held on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange. At 9 o'clock, with the sound of a gong, the PTA option contract was officially traded in Zhengshang. The PTA option, together with the methanol option listed at the same time, has become China's first listed option option. According to the insiders, the listing of PTA options will help to promote the high quality development of China's energy and chemical industry. At the same time, the listing of PTA options marks an important step forward in the development and transformation of Zheng Shang, and further consolidates the dominant position of the trading center of textile products, which is the most abundant and the most complete tool. China is the largest producer and consumer of PTA in the world. It is also the largest producer and consumer of polyester products in the world. In 2018, the effective capacity of China's PTA reached 45 million 790 thousand tons, the output was 40 million 800 thousand tons, and the self-sufficiency rate reached 99.8%.

In December 7th, the China Textile outdoor sports union activity day and the China Textile elite ski club training camp were officially opened at the eight dragon ski resort in Beijing. Nearly 50 participants from the Chinese textile and garment industry chain upstream and downstream related enterprises participated in the event. This ski training camp has attended more than 40 leading Chinese textile and garment enterprises, including Beijing rush speed limit, cotton age, horse riding, ABCKIDS, UMBRO, LAVI, Ningbo Langdi textile, GUI Shi Di industry, Shandong Road clothing, a cable industry, Yangzhou fairy eiderdown, Wenzhou round metal buttons, Liansheng textile, clothing and fine goods, Hua Ying Xintang feather and down, Jin Jiangwan Xing Long dyeing and weaving, Guangzhou fal Ma leather, Weibo Si interlining, Shanghai Zhongxin dress, plain cotton textile, natural colored cotton home, road textile, surplus textile and so on. It is understood that the China Textile outdoor sports alliance now has many industrial associations such as China Textile elite walking club, China elite textile ski club, China Textile elite cycling club, China Textile elite climbing club, and so on.

India Research Institute reported that following the 2018 fiscal year cotton yarn production stagnated, in 2019 fiscal year India cotton yarn output increased by 3% to 4 million 182 thousand tons. According to reports, although domestic cotton prices are high and demand stagnates, due to increased import demand in Bangladesh and Vietnam, India's cotton yarn production in fiscal year 2020 is expected to be 420-425 tons, up 1.5-2.5%. Due to falling international oil prices and rising domestic cotton prices, the production of India blended yarn and non cotton yarn is estimated at 171-174 tons, an increase of 2-4%. India textile industry began to stabilize after the policy of waste money and GST unified tax. In recent months, downstream demand has begun to recover. In the 2020 fiscal year, the output of clothing and manufactured goods is expected to grow by 10-12%. Although China's cotton mill has established a production base in Vietnam, India will remain the world's largest exporter of cotton yarn. In the 2020 year, the increase of US crude oil output and the weakening of the world economy will bring down the adjustment of crude oil prices, and the price of chemical fiber substitutes is expected to remain competitive at home and abroad. According to the above analysis, India's industry organization expects India cotton yarn demand will increase by 3-5% in the 2020 fiscal year, but we need to closely follow the impact of China's policies, the decline of cotton stocks and the fluctuation of oil prices on the price of chemical fiber.

According to a well-known cotton expert in the United States, although the US cotton planting area dropped to 14 million acres in 2019, it decreased by 2.7% compared with the same period last year. But in 2020, the US cotton area may be further reduced to below 11 million acres, a decrease of 3 million acres compared with the same period last year. John Robinson, a cotton economics expert at Texas Tech University, believes that Sino US economic and trade problems and the reduction of the US cotton area are the two key factors that determine the overall situation of the cotton market in 2020. The possible decline in US cotton area may have a major impact on the cotton market in 2020. The reduction in US cotton area is more likely than other events to boost cotton prices in 2020. For now, it is estimated that the US cotton area will be reduced by 200-300 acres in 2020. If so, the US cotton end inventory will continue to reduce several million packages to provide support for cotton prices. The head of the US National Cotton Federation (NCC) said that global cotton consumption will remain low before the Sino US trade war is completely resolved. More export contracts may be cancelled or transferred to 2020/21 in the year of 2019/20.

Market curve