At The Beginning Of The Sino US Trade Station, Some People'S Knees Are Soft. If The Buttocks Sit Tilted, It Is Because They Have Been Kneeling For Too Long.

The Sino US trade war has started. Now that the two sides have just started to pull up, some people's knees are soft. In recent days, the social media's responsibility for attributing trade wars to China and China's failure to win the trade war with the United States is very loud.

These individuals, if not sitting on the wrong side, are kneeling too long for calcium deficiency.

For this trade war, it has been brewing for nearly 10 years.

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the voice of trade war has been heard for 10 years. But basically, there is little thunder and heavy rain. There are trade protectionism between big powers, but the overall scale is very small.

This time, Trump imposed punitive tariffs on China's $60 billion commodity. It should be the first time that the big world trade war has been launched since the global financial crisis in 2008.

Over the past few years, China has expressed many attitudes towards n, opposed trade protectionism and firmly supported globalization.

The Sino US trade war was imposed on China by the Trump administration under the background of China's persuasion of the United States. China was forced to take part in the war.

However, when the United States issued a post-war trade with China, China's determination to take part in the war is very firm and strong, and it does not give the United States any room to exploit any loopholes.

In response to the US trade war to China, Chinese ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai said that China does not want to fight trade with any side, and is still trying to avoid trade war. But if someone insists on fighting, we will resolutely fight back.

China will not succumb to any threat, coercion and intimidation. We are considering all options and will take all necessary measures to safeguard China's legitimate rights and interests.

Liu He, vice premier of China, made a clear speech during his meeting with US Treasury Secretary Mu chin, saying that China is ready and has the strength to defend the national interest. China's official hard line has shown that China will not succumb to any trade war imposed on China, and China will take all means to counter it.

From this, we can see that China has made up its mind to fight the trade war imposed by the United States on China, and is committed to not defeating the United States.

Well, maybe many people want to know if China can win the trade war. If so, what will China win the trade war with the US?

In the view of Zheng Hao (WeChat public number: Hao Hao), the United States launched a trade war against China. It was in a wrong time and a wrong war with the wrong target. The reason why the unjust war was defeated in the United States was three reasons:

First, the United States is moving against the trend of the times.

Although the United States is aggressive in fighting trade, there are few countries in the world that support the United States, including the European and Asian allies of the United States who are opposed to trade wars, including WTO, IMF and other international organizations.

A trade war without the foundation of international identity is bound to be the United States once it is launched in an all-round way.

And if the United States only targets China, it is the all-around hostility between the United States and China, which is a systemic risk to the United States, and Trump has no such courage.

Two, the US has no ultimate capital to fight a sustained trade war with China.

What is the fight for trade wars? Ultimately, industrial manufacturing capability and the political, economic and military influence on the region.

Since the US dollar was decoupled from gold in the 70s of last century, the United States has gained almost unlimited banknote printing power. Since then, the US economy has begun to move towards hollowing out and virtualization.

Especially after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and China's accession to the WTO, the hollowing out of the US economy is more serious. This is the fundamental reason for the US's decline and the long-term high deficit in the US.

In the eyes of the Americans, as long as the military, political and economic rules and monetary hegemony are established, and leading in the field of science and technology, we can completely grasp the capital, commodity flow and pricing power of the whole world. Where does the US need its own manufacturing industry?

However, the current situation is that by twenty-first Century, the hegemony of the United States is declining, and the global economic influence and the right of making political and economic rules are losing. The US military power is no longer where it can dominate the world. After the global financial crisis in 2008 and the past 10 years after the crisis, the United States gradually lost control of the relevant powers.

If the United States must fight an ultimate trade war with China, the United States itself can not create large-scale life goods that China can provide, nor can it build a large-scale and complete industrial chain to meet the needs of the people in the short term, and no country in the world can replace China.

Under such circumstances, the US economy, finance and capital markets will be in chaos. There will be a shortage of materials in society, and vicious inflation will come.

Note that inflation of material shortage is not an ordinary inflation, and monetary policy adjustment is useless because monetary policy can not replace industrial production.

Moreover, in terms of trade and industrial manufacturing, the United States is far too far away from China in terms of trade and industrial manufacturing. The annual throughput of the top 9 ports of the United States does not meet the annual throughput of a port in Shanghai.

Therefore, when the Sino US outbreak of the comprehensive trade war really happens, most countries in the world will stand on the side of China, because that is their country's real interests and the interests that the United States can not afford.

As Kevin Rudd, a former Australian Prime Minister, has just been interviewed at the China Development Forum, China's trade influence in Asia is much bigger than that of the United States, and the United States won't win a trade war.

Moreover, in terms of the ultimate counterforce capability, if the United States is completely hostile to China and blocks China's external routes, China can control the flow of goods from the manufacturing base in East Asia to the United States by controlling the South China Sea.

From the above, we can see that the United States and China do not have the ultimate cards in the trade war.

Compared with the United States, China has a stronger market capacity than the United States because of its commodity manufacturing capacity and consumer market, and the Chinese themselves are more tolerant and united than the Americans. In the view of WeChat (the public number: Hao Hao), they all decide that the US and China trade war is lack of the ultimate fighting spirit and ability, and frankly, they do not have the capital to fight the ultimate trade war with China.

Three, the internal redundancy capacity of the US economy is very different from that of China.

Compared with the US, China's internal economic redundancy is much stronger than that of the United States.

First of all, Sino US trade accounts for less than 15% of China's foreign trade, while foreign trade accounts for only about 10% of China's GDP. Therefore, the overall impact of Sino US trade war on China's economy is not as great as expected, and its impact on GDP is very small. Even if the United States imposed punitive tariffs on all goods in China, its impact on China's GDP is also very limited.

Moreover, as China's consumer market has started, even if it loses part of the US market, China can basically digest its policies in the domestic market and make some adjustments to the international market.

Even if China and the United States are totally opposed to trade, the big market of China's 1 billion 400 million population can also be digested.

Moreover, many of China's exports are manufactured by Chinese enterprises in the United States and then returned to the United States. The damage done to China is not made in China. They are less orders. These capacities can be applied to domestic or other markets.

As for the negative impact of trade war on China's economy, because the Chinese government controls the mobilization of almost all economic resources, China can completely mobilize economic elements as needed, and stimulate economic development through macroeconomic regulation to stabilize the economy. For example, the very popular PPP project in the past two years is a means of macro adjustment.

Compared with China, the US government has no such ability to mobilize resources. Of course, its control over domestic investment is much weaker.

Compared with the United States, China still has two magic weapons: one is the consumption potential of China's huge population base, and the two is the space for China's Midwest to invest.

These two will enable China to minimize the negative impact of trade war.

Compared with China, once the trade war breaks out, the US government can not solve these problems as well as China.

Just like that, the White House can't solve it, that is, if the price of Chinese goods is soaring or can not buy Chinese goods at all, where can the United States find corresponding products to meet the needs of the American people?

Some of the Chinese people have not been able to fight the trade war. They do not understand because they do not understand the fruit, but are afraid of foreigners. This is due to lack of knowledge and self-confidence.

If China can win the trade war, we just need to look back. Time will prove that the judgement is correct, just like the past judgment of other major events.