There Are Variables In The Policy Of Dumping And Storage. Zheng Cotton'S Performance Differentiation In The Near And Far Months.

In recent months, the 1709 contract was significantly higher than the 1801 contract in the far month.

In recent months, the contract was affected by the replenishment of the reserve in the late stage of the reserve cotton throwing and storage, and the price center of gravity was higher; the far month contract was affected by the fundamentals of the new year, and the weak trend was oscillating.

However, a rumor of longer storage time has resulted in a sharp fall of 500 yuan / ton in the recent months, and 300 yuan / ton in the far month contract.

Because of differences in fundamentals, the two trend is not synchronous.

According to the rough calculation of the two and a half months of industrial stock at the end of August, the domestic demand for cotton (15105, -245.00, -1.60%) is at least 3 million 50 thousand tons before the new cotton market is put on a large scale.

Data statistics show that as of the end of June, industrial inventories and commercial inventories totaled 2 million 40 thousand tons, plus a large number of imported cotton and new cotton, and the domestic cotton supply gap was 910 thousand tons.

As of July 21st, a total of 304 thousand and 700 tons of cotton reserves were issued in July.

From the end of this week to the end of August, we need to sell 600 thousand tons of cotton reserves to ensure market demand.

That is to say, in the remaining 28 trading days,

The output is 600 thousand tons and the daily turnover is 21 thousand and 400 tons.

Beginning in mid July, the daily turnover of cotton reserves increased significantly, basically above 20 thousand tons, especially last week, with an average daily turnover of 23 thousand and 600 tons, with a turnover rate of 80%.

Meanwhile,

The amount of input is low and stable, which is 34%.

It can be seen that the increase in the quantity of cotton reserves comes from the contribution of real estate cotton.

In terms of price, the reserve price of cotton reserves increased by 43 yuan / ton to 15007 yuan / ton.

There are indications that the downstream replenishment is quietly opening.

2017/2018 is the fourth year of cotton direct subsidy in China. After a series of target price reform and inventory elimination measures, China's cotton planting area has finally recovered after 5 years of decline.

According to the findings of the NDRC's subordinate organizations, the actual sown area of cotton in 2017 was 47 million 573 thousand mu, an increase of 3 million 728 thousand mu compared with the same period last year, an increase of 8.5%.

Thanks to the increase in planting area, cotton production is expected to increase, and the supply gap will converge considerably.

The latest US agriculture report shows that in 2017/2018, cotton production in China was 5 million 222 thousand tons, an increase of 272 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 5.49%, and consumption of 8 million 270 thousand tons, an increase of 110 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 1.34%, and the increase in consumption was less than the increase in output.

In addition, the report shows that the final inventory will drop by 18.7% to 8 million 566 thousand and 500 tons, and the warehouse to consumption ratio will drop 25.5 percentage points to 103.42%.

suffer

The impact of pre production growth, domestic and foreign cotton futures pressure, the 1801 contract from the end of 5 months in the last 16400 yuan / ton lowest to 14650 yuan / ton, or 12%.

Last Friday, a rumor that "reserve cotton reserves will be extended to the end of September" destroyed the rebound rhythm of the contract in recent months, and all the contracts of Zheng cotton fell to varying degrees.

Among them, the main contract was the largest.

There is no doubt that extending the sale of reserve cotton to the end of September will delay the pace of procurement of downstream enterprises, which is doubtless bad for the market.

However, the author thinks that throwing storage has limited effect on domestic cotton.

The extension of reserve cotton sale time only slowed down the pace of replenishment of downstream enterprises, and the average daily volume of cotton reserves decreased.

To sum up, the replenishment of the reserve cotton liner is active in the late stage of the downstream replenishment, pulling the rebound of the contract in recent months, and the cotton contract output at home and abroad has increased substantially, and the market has shown a near strong and far weaker pattern under the pressure of the global end inventory increase.

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