PTA Supply And Demand Situation Has Not Changed Completely Before The Situation Is Difficult To Measure.

Raw material PTA market continues to shake weak pattern, but a few days ago, the polyester filament FDY factory met. Today, some FDY factories have raised the quotations of 50 yuan / ton, and the POY factory conference has been held in succession. It is expected that in the short term, there will be sporadic factory quotations from mainstream factories, together with approaching National Day holidays, and the demand for stocking before the lower reaches of the Festival remains.

The market for polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is estimated: POY150D/48F is 6800-6850 yuan / ton; FDY150D/96F is 7500-7600 yuan / ton; DTY150D/48F is 8550-8700 yuan / ton.

CITIC futures analyst

Introduction, in August, crude oil prices rebounded sharply, PTA parking repair device increased, the operating rate decreased, while the same period of polyester to maintain a high start, with the support of cost and fundamentals, PTA appeared wavelet phase recovery.

After mid August, the trend of PTA maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. On the one hand, demand was expected to be biased under the influence of G20 and PTA was doubtful upward; on the other hand, the volatility of oil prices led to changes in costs. However, because of the limited space in which PTA production profits were squeezed, the trend of PTA's decline was limited.

From a long period of view, Lin Ching believes that in the PTA supply and demand pattern has not changed completely, the overall trend of PTA in 2016 will be manifested by the rise or fall in the range affected by many stages and empty factors.

Lin Jing expects the fourth quarter.

The PTA index will still have strong support under 4500, while the first target in the market will be around 5000.

In general, the trend of PTA in the fourth quarter has a potential to pick up stage.

Therefore, its trend is in a stage of recovery potential, with limited downlink and low probability of innovation.

Lin Ching further said that in the later stage, the supply of PTA was affected by some devices' short-term overhaul and parking.

For example, Hengli Petrochemical 6 million 600 thousand ton plant has a round of inspection plan in the four quarter. One set of 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment has been overhauled on September 1st -14, and another 2 million 200 thousand ton plant is planned for October 7th.

The repair time for 10-15 days and third sets of 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment has not been determined yet, but Hengli has already reduced the contract part.

In addition, the Ningbo MITSUBISHI 700 thousand ton plant was restopped in September 17th. According to the long news, the device's arrival cycle will be delayed until mid late 10. It is expected that the device will run normally in November. The Hon Bang Petrochemical 600 thousand ton plant failed to stop in September 14th. It was scheduled to restart for 2-3 days, but it has not been officially restarted.

The short-term supply and demand of PTA will be boosted accordingly.