US Growth Rate And Inflation Rate Are Slowing Down.

The Federal Reserve Committee (FRB) will convene the 20~21 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to decide on monetary policy on September.

At the end of August, President Yellen said, "the conditions for raising interest rates are already available", implying that interest rates will be raised as soon as possible, but the economic indicators subsequently released are lacking in strong momentum.

Inside the Fed, there is still a cautious opinion of raising interest rates. In financial markets, the expectation that the next rate hike will be in December is heating up.

"The US economic growth rate and inflation rate are slowing down and monetary tightening needs to be cautious". In September 12th, Brainard, the governor of the Federal Reserve in Chicago, raised objections to raising interest rates as soon as possible.

After that, in the futures market,

Cool down quickly.

The rate of interest increase in September is expected to drop from 21% to 15%.

Renard is known for his cautious attitude towards raising interest rates, and the speech itself has not changed significantly.

The response to the market is the timing of the above speech.

In the 1 week from the 13 to the next meeting, the Fed will enter the "blackout period" to avoid issuing monetary policy signals.

Renard's speech is the last chance to pry into the Fed's policy attitude.

In his speech, Brainard emphasized "

This is a new normal, which is concerned with low growth and low inflation. Yellen often uses such occasions as press conference.

Because the US economy is hard to overheat, Renard said, "preventive interest rate increases are not convincing".

The Fed has been considering raising interest rates in September.

Yellen said in August 26th at the world economic Symposium (Jackson Holzer Conference) held in Wyoming, USA, "the conditions for raising interest rates are already available".

Later, Fisher, Stanley Fischer, who was asked if he might raise interest rates in September, answered "yes" as well as he did.

The futures market is expected to raise interest rates at close to 40%.

The August employment data released in September 2nd prompted the market to wonder if it would happen immediately.

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The number of senior officials fed by the Fed increased by more than 150 thousand, less than the market forecast.

Yellen and other senior Federal Reserve officials believe that "the growth rate of employment is close to 100 thousand people is enough", but the financial market believes that there is no decisive factor in raising interest rates.

The main indicators such as price and corporate prosperity stagnate simultaneously, and the positive effect of raising interest rates is weakening.

The Federal Open Market Committee is currently being discussed by 17 people, including the vice chairman, the director and the president of the regional Federal Bank, and 10 of the voting members have finally decided on the policy.

If we divide the positive hawkish and negative doves, we will be more hawkish for the heads of regional Federal banks and more doves for the directors.

Judging from the speech on raising interest rates, Yellen's judgment will obviously affect the final conclusion.

It is predicted that the real growth rate of the US economy will increase to around 3% in 7~9 months, and that the conditions for raising interest rates are being met is certain.

But the market lacks psychological preparation to become a decisive obstacle.

Goldman Sachs, which has raised several top Federal Reserve officials, announced a market forecast for --70%, an important data on when to raise interest rates.

Goldman Sachs research report said: "in the past analysis of the Fed's interest rate hike, we found that 9 of the situation was considered by the market more than 70% a day before the meeting".

There is a clear gap between the 15% forecast and the futures market.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates after 9 and a half years in December 2015, but was criticized as one of the reasons for the decline in global stock prices.

Yellen seemed to be tired of explaining at the summit of the group of twenty (G20), saying that "a new round of interest rate increases will be implemented on the premise that it is as predictable as possible."