The Main Shock Wave Of A Shares Has Ended.

Because we are in a big era of change.

In last year's central economic work conference and two sessions this year, the Central Committee proposed that the supply side reform should be the main focus in the future.

We are confident that with the icebreaking of supply side reform, China's economic pformation will usher in a new era, and it will open a new era for the capital market.

There are three main aspects of the so-called general trend: economy, policy and market.

The economy includes growth and inflation. Policies include finance, currency, exchange rate and reform. The market includes stock market, housing market, bond market, foreign exchange market and commodity.

I would like to give you some views on these aspects first, and then talk about logic.

In 2014, I pushed three points: new 5% is better than old 8%, and 5000 is not a dream.

In 2015, I also pushed three points: the economic L type, the stock market altitude has been high, the wind is slow, the first tier house prices have doubled.

In this year, our core is to promote three points.

First, the economic L model has become a mainstream opinion this year.

Second, reform is political economy.

Third, the stock market recuperate and shake up the structural opportunities of the city, seeing more gold, treasury bonds and some of the commodities.

This is the main point, and logic is underneath.

Since the Second World War, there are more than 100 backward economies in the world. In the past 70 years, they have pursued different kinds of catching up. How many of them have finally crossed the middle-income stage into the developed economies? 12?

The probability of success is 10%, 90% of the latecomer does not take off or stop at the middle stage of economic income, which is the challenge China is facing now.

The leap of income is only a representation. Behind the deeper level is the pformation of growth power, driven by factors, and driven by innovation, from heavy chemical industry to high-end manufacturing and modern service industry. What is really hard is this.

The more difficult time is the pformation of growth momentum and the need for a new round of reform and opening up.

What is the root cause of China's high growth in the past? Simply speaking, it is human and system, that is, reform dividend and demographic dividend.

Reform dividend.

In 78 or 98 years, it was in the low level of China's economy that China started two rounds of reform and opening up.

Now China's economy is once again in the doldrums, and since the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee 2013, we are restarting the third round of reform.

Demographic dividend.

The first key data for the population is the peak of China's population from 1962 to 1976. Then, because of family planning, the birth rate of China dropped off in the late 70s.

1962 the group of people born in 1976 is the mainstream group in China.

The main characteristics of growth and economic structure.

China's past high growth is the result of this wave of people. Over the past more than 10 years, China's real estate gold has been in the market for ten years, that is, this wave of people buying a house.

So the question is, how old are the people born in 1962 to 1976? Forty or fifty years old.

In another six years, China's mainstream labor force will withdraw from the labor market, and China will bid farewell to the traditional demographic dividend.

In 2012, the working age population of China aged 15 to 59 had begun to decrease, and the Lewis turning point appeared before and after 2008. The wages of migrant workers rose rapidly in recent years, and exports left the era of high growth.

The core of China's economic growth in the past is the two engine, external demand.

And domestic demand, we see that the first pillar supporting China's high growth has collapsed in the past, that is, the era of processing trade supported by traditional demographic dividend ends.

The key figure of the second Chinese population is the low birth rate growth rate in 1994. The birth period is ahead of the real estate cycle for 20 years.

If we saw the low birth rate of Chinese population in 1994, we will see the turning point of China's real estate investment 20 years later.

In 2014, China's real estate investment slipped from 19.3% at the beginning of the year to -1.9% at the end of 2015, and the decline was even beyond the level of the economic crisis.

What happened in 2014? I will give you three numbers: the first data. In 2014, the number of people buying 20-50 years of age in China began to show a net decrease.

What people buy a house? 20 to 50 years old people buy houses. The experience of the United States, Europe, Japan, including China shows that 20 to 50 years old are the mainstream people who buy houses. They can't afford to buy them before they are 20 years old, and do not need them after 50 years old.

20 to 35 years old first purchase, 35 to 50 years old to improve housing.

The second data, the average set of cities and towns, except for a second tier city and demand, most of the three or four line cities are saturated.

Do not forget that the three or four tier cities account for 70% of China's real estate investment.

The third data showed that China's urbanization rate was 17.92% in 1978 and 56.1% in 2015.

Moreover, we should also consider that 277 million of the migrant workers in China, if coupled with their children left behind in the countryside and the elderly, according to family calculation, China's urbanization rate has been close to or even more than 60%.

With the end of demographic dividend, the ebb tide of processing trade, the turning point of real estate investment cycle and the end of heavy chemical industry, China has always bid farewell to the era of high growth.