A Shares Have Entered The Restructuring Crazily "Crazy Mode".

Ceng Zhaoxiong, chairman of Ming Yao's investment, said that A shares are still in the long bull market which began in 2012: from 2012 to 2014, the line is three small lines, and 2015 is a long line with long shadows. In 2016, there is a big shadow line with a shadow below. In the course of the stock market crash, there was a strong internal support near the 3430 point.

After 87 of the stock market crash, it took us two years to digest the valuation bubble, and we believe that A shares will also overcome the problems of structural valuation bubbles in the next two or three years and create a new high.

Ming Yao investment Chairman

He said, "if you fail to cash in on a profit at 5000 o'clock, please don't make second mistakes again. After the stock market has dropped about 50%, superstition" cash is king ".

Ceng Zhaoxiong pointed out that for most people, the most important thing is not to judge the macro economy and market trend, but as Buffett said, "life is like a snowball. The most important thing is to find very wet snow and a long slope."

Yes

For example, risk and opportunity always coexist. Long snow roads often start when public panic and despair. For company selection, long snow road is a big industry opportunity in specific economic development stage, which is usually referred to in the sunrise industry, which can really generate large returns for shareholders; and very wet snow is the winner in these fields.

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Whether it's technology or fundamentals, one of the main debates on the market is whether A shares are expensive or not. Ceng Zhaoxiong said that after nearly 50% adjustments, A shares still have some structural pricing errors or valuations which are expensive, mainly under the 10 billion market capitalization of small companies and technology related sub sectors.

However, whether horizontal or vertical comparison, the overall valuation of A shares has dropped to a lower level.

Ceng Zhaoxiong analyzed, "analyzing the long-term trend of A shares. I do not recommend that you take a look at the card index. We have to observe the index. It now has an average PB (city net rate) of 1.8 times, and the lowest position in nearly 10 years in May 2014, 1.5 times.

In other words, the lowest point in the past ten years is only about 16% lower than the current one.

Then, will the market go back to the extremely poor state in May 2014? "I think no, because the current market interest rate is much lower than that in 2014, and it will be difficult to improve in the long term."

"Taking the one-year fixed deposit rate as an example, May 2014 was 3%, and now it is 1.5%.

In recent years, the business environment of enterprises has become more and more difficult, but even in such a difficult environment, the overall A share of non bank listed companies has reached 8.3% of net assets yield, while the yield of 10 year bonds is only about 2.9%.

In a rational market environment, the average market rate should not fall to 1.5 times.

From the point of view of PE (price to earnings ratio), today's total A is about 18 times more than that of the last 10 years, perhaps 30% higher.

This also confirms an economic phenomenon - the average profitability of enterprises is at a relatively poor time.