Viscose Staple Fiber Market Prices Continue To Rise, Supply Is Tight, Demand Growth.

March 16th

Prices continue to rise, ranging from 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton, and nearly 10% since the end of the festival.

Manufacturers generally implement pre contract, orders more than have been discharged until April.

At present, viscose manufacturers overhaul capacity about 20%, market stock pressure is lighter.

According to Anxin securities, it is expected that in 2016, if there is no new capacity and demand continues to grow, the industry will continue to have a tight supply and demand situation.

According to Shanghai Securities News March 18th, the latest trend shows that viscose manufacturers recently overhaul capacity of about 20%, mainly concentrated in Shandong, Fujian and some manufacturers in Central China, the market is low.

In terms of mainstream quotations, the mid-range offer is 13700 yuan -13800 yuan / ton, and the focus of the firm is 13500 yuan -13600 yuan / ton.

The high-end quotation is 13900 yuan / ton, the manufacturers generally implement the pre contract, and the order is delayed until April.

From the perspective of industry supply and demand, due to market downturn and environmental pressure, in recent years

The speed of capacity delivery slowed down significantly, and the growth rate of new capacity in 2014 and 2015 was only 6%, significantly lower than the average level in the past few years.

At the same time, under the pressure of environmental protection, about 10% of the capacity was withdrawn from the market in 2015, resulting in a sharp contraction in the supply side.

By the end of 2015, China's viscose staple fiber production capacity was about 3 million 710 thousand tons, while the apparent demand in 2015 was 3 million 100 thousand tons, the export volume was 220 thousand tons, and the import volume was 140 thousand tons. The average annual operating rate of the viscose staple fiber exceeded 85%, and the supply and demand of the industry basically balanced.

Taking into account the 180 thousand tons of Zhejiang Xiaoshan's plan to move in the first half of 2016, and the additional capacity of only 90 thousand tons (40 thousand tonnes of Xinjiang's capacity expansion and 50 thousand tons of Shandong silver hawk), the industry's actual supply capability or negative growth will appear.

In addition, due to the withdrawal of some backward production capacity, the concentration of industries has gradually increased, and the synergy between enterprises has increased significantly.

At present, the concentration of viscose staple fiber industry in China is relatively high. Before the production capacity, the five largest enterprises occupy 53% of the market share of the industry, and the top ten enterprises occupy about 79%.

In addition, upstream

In recent years, the dissolution rate of pulp is far higher than that of short viscosity industry. It is expected that the supply of dissolving pulp will continue to be loose, and the bargaining power of enterprises to the upstream pulp mill will be further improved.

At the same time, the downstream spinning and weaving enterprises are relatively decentralized, and the bargaining power of sticky enterprises is not strong enough.

According to Anxin securities, the structure of viscose staple fiber industry continues to improve under the pressure of leading enterprises' Price Alliance Synergy, mergers and acquisitions, and environmental protection.

In addition, since 2015, the trend of downstream textile industry has been stabilizing, and the demand for textile and garment industries mainly export-oriented has increased, thus increasing the consumption of raw viscose staple fiber.

A shares in Australia, Nanjing chemical fiber (600889, stock bar), Sanyou chemical and other listed companies, involving viscose staple related businesses.