Cotton Prices Showed A Weak Rebound.

According to statistics, in November 2015, the retail sales of clothing commodities of hundreds of major retail enterprises in China dropped by 5% compared with the same period last year, the lowest monthly growth rate this year, down 5.9 percentage points from the same period last year, down 6.9 percentage points from last month.

From the data of retail sales volume, the volume of retail sales of all kinds of clothing in 100 major large retail enterprises in November increased by 4.5% over the same period last year, down 1.5 percentage points from the same period last year, down 4 percentage points from last month.

Customs data show that in November 2015, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 21 billion 982 million US dollars, down 7.07%, down 9.71% from the same period last year.

As of November 2015, textile and clothing exports grew negative year-on-year in 10 months this year, and the growth rate is still negative.

It can be seen that the downstream consumption demand of cotton is still not optimistic.

Recently, Zheng cotton main contract 1605 continued low oscillation, seems to have a rebound intention, but the market has no obvious positive factors support.

This year the global cotton market showed a shortage of supply, but due to the end of the term

High prices and weak downstream consumption have led to a weak rebound in cotton prices.

The US Department of agriculture's latest supply and demand data show that the estimated global cotton output in 2015/2016 is 22 million 580 thousand tons, 3 million 353 thousand tons less than that in the previous year.

Compared with the previous year, it increased by 221 thousand tons to 24 million 252 thousand tons.

Global cotton production has declined sharply and demand has increased slightly, making the supply and demand pattern of the global cotton market changed from last year's surplus to the current shortage, with a shortage of 1 million 672 thousand tons.

However, the global cotton end of year inventory forecast value of 22 million 729 thousand tons, although 1 million 659 thousand tons lower than the previous year, but still at a record high.

However, if we exclude domestic inventory data, we can see that the global cotton end inventory and its inventory consumption ratio data are not as obvious as those of previous years.

That is to say, the trend of global cotton in later stage also depends on the "color" of domestic cotton stocks.

According to the latest estimates of the US Department of agriculture, China

The output forecast is 5 million 291 thousand tons, a decrease of 1 million 241 thousand tons over the previous year, consumption of 7 million 76 thousand tons, a reduction of 109 thousand tons compared with the previous year, and cotton imports of 1 million 197 thousand tons, down 607 thousand tons from the previous year.

Based on the above production and sales data, China's cotton production and import data showed a decline of different ranges this year. Cotton supply and demand also changed from the supply wide balance pattern of last year to the supply shortage situation, with a shortage of 588 thousand tons.

It is noteworthy that China's 14 million 156 thousand tons of final inventory, though 632 thousand tons lower than the previous year, is still at a record high.