Stock Market Outlook: Stock Return Is A Regression.

In 2015, the pace of China's technology enterprises going to the US IPO slowed down significantly. The number of Chinese technology enterprises listed in the US may be 6 to 9, which is only about half of that in 2014. On the other hand, there are a lot of regression trends in the US stock market. By the end of November 2015, a total of 34 listed companies in the US announced privatization or have begun to dismantle the VIE.

The author believes that it is a historical setback for technology enterprises to hesitate to go abroad and to go back to the stock market.

Stock price earnings ratio, corporate earnings and performance growth must be taken into account.

Throw aside all this, blindly support and indulge in the main speculation and stir up new industries, so that the stock returns to grab the excess profits generated by the institutional defects. Not only will it be difficult for investors to get returns, the industry will also be hard to develop, and all aspects may be delayed.

A number of technology companies have been unable to list in China. One reason is that companies have become "foreign companies" because of their overseas financing. Many of them have adopted VIE structure, and some companies are even in the market.

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Now, in the US listing, stocks are mostly withdrawn from the A stock market through privatization and demolition of the VIE structure, thereby eliminating barriers to listing in the US stock market.

But obviously, the major shareholders of the company want to privatize the overseas stock market, and the takeover offer to the market is generally much higher than the market price, which costs a lot.

The reason why big shareholders want to be listed in A shares even if it costs a lot of money is that the money of the A shares is really good.

From the case of stock return,

The book surplus is absolutely breathtaking.

It is precisely because of the current situation.

The valuation of the same stock is several times more expensive than that of the mature market, which is also the root cause of frequent frequent fluctuations in the A share market.

It is not surprising that a valuation is suspended in the middle of the market. It is not surprising at all times that a sharp fall is necessary. To maintain this valuation level, we can only continue to bail out the market or even save real money through policy stimulus. Investors in such a bubble market obviously need to take huge systemic risks.

Indeed, most of the stock companies represent the direction of the emerging economy, but its value in the US stock market is 1 yuan. Why can it be worth several yuan or even more than 10 yuan in the A share market? In my view, the main force in the A share market takes advantage of the state's support for the new economic development environment, the blind worship of investors in the new economy, and the manipulation of the market to attract investors to follow suit.

Opening to the outside world is a long-term policy of our country, and it is the meaning of the capital market opening to the outside world that enterprises go abroad to list on the mature market abroad.

Enterprises going abroad to list and go out can not only introduce foreign capital, but also introduce advanced business management concepts. In particular, listed companies can also perceive the harsh system of mature markets and the regulatory philosophy of investors as God.

China's stock market can not bear the harsh supervision of the mature market and the undervalued value. Large shareholders swarm into the immature A share market to grab the wealth brought by the institutional defects. This is a historical retrogression of the capital market opening to the outside world, and it also brings a new high risk risk to the A share market.