11.29: The Market Shock, The Wind And Cloud Again.

Every time we come to a market crash, especially when a big financial slump falls, we can see that on Friday, the stock market is basically a collective limit. The market is very panic, and it is also a record of recent decline.

However, let's start with a conclusion. Don't panic. The trend is quite different from the previous stock market crash.

Now this fall, if we want to compare, it may be two regulatory policies issued by the regulators in January this year, and the two stock trading companies' situation is similar. After that, the market has risen from 3000 points to more than 5100 at the end of May, so we should not panic.

If there is a chance to open low on Monday, I suggest that we can focus on the excellent financial stocks.

And this fall also has an advantage, so that the trend of speculation before the market will also cool down, true value, real growth will get market attention.

Therefore, our conference call focuses on several issues of market concern.

The first is about securities companies being investigated.

We can see that at the beginning of Friday, brokerage stocks have not fallen much. Behind that, Haitong Securities has been investigated, and the entire securities sector has begun to fall rapidly.

But we can see today, Guoxin, Haitong, CITIC have issued a notice, what announcement? The investigation is due to the two financial business, is the business level of investigation, not like many people think of a particularly big shock, so the three securities company's announcement can actually play a stabilizing role in the hearts of people.

The intensity of this investigation is once again emphasized that in January this year, it was very similar to CITIC, Haitong and Guojun's two financial businesses. At that time, I was very impressed. After the investigation, two of the three securities companies were on a daily limit. At that time, many investors said that they should not panic.

After the two fall, the mainstream excellent securities companies in this round of stock rose is a new high, so these announcements should be well understood.

Second: about the new deal of IPO.

Market rumors that 75 days IPO, I can say that this is absolutely impossible. We also talked with investment bankers, the fastest and most likely to be more than half a year, from the admissibility to the final issue of the fastest half a year.

But you don't really think half a year will be able to IPO, I suggest to ask the investment bank people, regulators for the rhythm of the issue is controlled, there will not be many people want to, at once completely liberalized, this is absolutely impossible.

This is the second point. There is another point to note about the new deal of IPO, that is, the registration system will be pushed forward.

This point, we should not have too many illusions, that the stock market crash fell IPO registration system will not push? No, it should be pushed.

But now the market has just come up from 3000, and it will not be released as many people say.

After all, the rise of the stock market, especially the rise of the Shanghai stock index, is still a very important indicator for management because, according to my understanding, you can't get rid of the meat if you do not heat up, so we can see that all kinds of announcements on the weekend are in the hope that the market will be stable.

The third is the statement of the securities companies. We can see that there are some announcements. We can see that some of the announcements will not be reduced according to the previous mode, and will not be reduced immediately because it can be reduced immediately, because after all, we must maintain market stability. This is the first point.

If we buy good stocks, such as excellent big finance, why do we want to reduce them? So the weekend statement of the securities companies is also my hope that the market will be stable.

Fourth is the China Securities Association weekend emergency explanation, the stock of the income exchange is about 78000000000, does not have much influence.

CSI also said that the stock of the proceeds exchange can continue, and the increment is halted, which is very similar to the two financial supervision at that time.

Once again, I emphasize the trend of the two financial supervision in January. We focused on the market from 3000 points to more than 5100.

So don't panic.

The fifth is about style switching.

As I said just now, do not need so many policies on the weekend to protect the disk. Not because IPO has not been released so quickly, we do not think the style will change. I always believe that this adjustment is an important point of style switching, similar to that of 2007 5.30.

After 5.30, the real value investment, the rise of real growth investment, and now the SFC encourages real value and real growth investment, rather than further speculation on some stocks that have no performance at all, and have no prospects for stocks.

So I think this style switch will be successful, and now the drop in time is particularly similar to the 5.30 handover at that time.

The sixth is about SDR. We always emphasize that RMB internationalization will buy big finance.

In November 30th, SDR will vote for the renminbi in a real sense.

Some investors asked me, this is a good release is bad, I told them that you do not understand the idea of real foreign investment, real foreign investment must wait until your policy landing, they dare to copy, and only policy landing, they can have the ability to copy.

Last week, Moodie made it clear that if the renminbi joined the SDR, it would have a positive impact on the RMB rating.

We have all learned the CAPM model, and the risk of RMB has been reduced. In fact, it represents a revaluation of the entire valuation system, especially the revaluation of big financial blue chips. Therefore, it is very important to join SDR.

And if I am right, joining the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong will be a very positive stimulus to the market as a whole.

At the weekend, there is another policy that is Shanghai link. On the weekend, Fang Xinghai made it clear that the study is actively promoting Shanghai Unicom. I think this matter is also very important. On behalf of foreign capital, we can buy blue chips further. I am still saying that, which is also a good thing, and joining SDR is the same.

At the same time

Let me give you a judgement that in December, the Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong pass rate will be announced.

The same as last year's Shanghai and Hong Kong links, why the rate of Shenzhen Hong Kong pass will be introduced in December, because the situation in Hongkong is developing in a good direction. In the District Council elections, the system can still stabilize the environment, which also gives international investors confidence and confidence in our country and the central government.

So in December, there should be further promotion of the interconnection policy between Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

The internationalization of RMB will not be wrong in the direction of big finance.

Many people say why there will be a slump on Friday. Let me tell you one thing. On Friday, it is Singapore's A50 delivery day, and the delivery date must be remembered.

A key observation, this observation is very important, the market fell 1000 points in June 28, 2005, to 998, I told the leadership, near the 1000 point is an important technical juncture, is also an important valuation and the base of the base, the basic level of China's economy is not so pessimistic, so this time to make money is a big probability.

From the 1000 point, we can see that the market has really risen to more than 6000 points. Of course, there must be bubbles at the back. But why don't we copy it at 1000? The second is in June 2013. We formally turned to hot blooded analysts. No matter what others think of me, I always believe that, when I fell below 2000, at 1847 o'clock, I told others that it was a rare chance to copy the bottom, and I still remember that many people told you to fall to 12001300.

I said no, the 2000 point is the important technical barrier, the gateway to fundamentals and valuation, and the central policy gateway, so we can see that 1847 has not stopped for a long time before it starts a real bull market, and it rises to more than 5100 points all the way.

I suggest you can see our blood analyst series one to five volumes.

This year's integer pass is 3000 points, more than 5100 points fall down 3000 points, to 2850, I told many people that golden opportunity has arrived, but many people do not believe it.

After that, it rose from 2850 points to more than 3600 points, although there was a more than 3400 drop on Friday, but I think 3000 point integer pass, although only 10% of the drop space, but I think it is not to wear, step back is very normal, but not to wear the 3000 point integer pass.

If I have the opportunity to collect the bottom for you on Monday, especially when I am going to go down sharply, I think it is a very good opportunity to copy the excellent and big finance.

What is the best copy? It is best to copy excellent financial stocks. Because of the two financial constraints in January this year, the rise of the OTC capital allocation and the slow reform of the market made the market style deviate, but this time the OTC asset allocation system has been completely cleaned up.

The rise of any stock is supported by funds, and those stocks that are hyped up without basic support are hard to sustain capital support.

And the latest policy, we can see that the supply of two financial funds is actually the direction of the future mainstream supply of funds. We can take a look at that time. The most relevant financial integration is the outstanding large financial stocks. At the end of last year, the wave was due to the rapid rise of the two financial melts, but the pace was too fast, and it was held down. The result was that the funds remained to the OTC capital allocation system, which led to the crazy rise of some hype stocks. But this time, I felt that nothing else could replace the two fusion. At this time, although the pace of the two pacing was slow, it was still stable, and the most relevant stocks of the two returned to the excellent big finance once again.

Like Shanghai and Hong Kong last year, in October, many people said that Hong Kong and Shanghai could not get through, and financial stocks fell sharply.

Suddenly, in early November, Shanghai and Hong Kong announced the opening, and then the big financial boom.

So don't be too panicky. I know what the overseas Hedge Fund thinks. They are waiting for the best financial assets in China. They are excellent big financial stocks.

Because Xi has personally told us that the stock market should form a market with high efficiency and good foundation while protecting the interests of investors. This is the first time that the general secretary has attached great importance to the stock market. What does it mean? It means that the stock market must be done well and the hot pot must be heated. So we can see that the weekend regulators have introduced various policies to smooth the mood of the market in order to slump on Friday. I think this is stable.

Why do we emphasize that by the end of the year, big funds have nowhere to go? The housing prices in the first tier cities have begun to show signs of callbacks. High yield trusts have already been at risk.

The important policy of real estate registration in first tier cities is the complete purge of underground banks, and money has no place to go.

So I think

It should be activated, so the survey only said that regulators thought that the speed was too fast and there was a lot of overdue resurgence of the over-the-counter capital, so the rhythm should be pressed at this point. We must understand the attitude of regulators and the central intention.

Let's talk about the two balance forecast, though nearly 1 trillion and 200 billion in the near future, I believe that by the end of next year, we will be able to reach 2 trillion. That is why we should not worry too much about the profits of the securities industry.

Because the two financial businesses can still grow significantly next year. There is no other system, but the demand for financing is always there.

And now the demand for financing can only be met through two financial melts. Next year, investment banking will break out. We must trust our judgment. Registration system, new three boards, direct investment and strategic emerging board are the key to the big investment banking system, and investment banking revenue will double as compared with the same period this year. So the profit of the entire securities industry, especially the profits of excellent securities companies will grow by 30% over the same period last year. I think there is no problem.

At present, although the brokerage stocks have been adjusted, our views remain the same. Brokers are still in the first place in our big financial system. They are insurance and banks. Insurance and banks show stronger resilience on Friday. I think there is a very good strategy for long term funds, that is, full warehouse insurance, banks, and then use two leverage to enlarge the leverage. Next year, I will take part in the market capitalization of IPO. I think my strategy can reach more than 15% annually by next year.

Because next year is the year of IPO reform and registration system. The regulatory authorities have made it clear that to maintain low price issuance, the rate is to make people who participate in IPO make money.

And the dividend yield of big finance is over 3%, which is also tax-free. What worries is there?

Talk back

In the securities market, we are still a new big move. We will find that we can push the stock market. We will not be able to win the investment this year, especially in China Everbright.

We recommend new Guotai, Xinhua, Guohua, and Tai Bao because we have the concept of state-owned enterprise reform.

In the bank, we pushed Ningbo, Beijing, Pudong, Guangda and Huaxia, because they all have state-owned enterprises reform, and their value has not been fully recognized by the market. These companies, I think, are the key choices for blue chips, and the typical representatives of value investing are suitable for long-term investment.

The choice of small and medium shares, we have previously reported Huaxi shares, Bohai leasing, Lu Xin venture capital and our investment bank projects.

The reform of state-owned enterprises is moving. We are exposed to many projects of state-owned enterprise reform. I think we should have confidence in the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the overall rhythm will accelerate in the second half of this year. This is a part of our experience in participating in investment banking projects.