PTA Trend Is Strong, The Future Is Worth Looking Forward To.

Short term device failure caused by rising market is not strong, with the resumption of profits and device restart, PTA will still fall into overcapacity, oversupply of quagmire.

PTA spot price also continued to rise. As of Tuesday, the offer was expected to be delivered within 4850 yuan / ton, and the delivery intention was 4800 yuan / ton to the nearby area. At present, the discussion is about 4800 yuan / ton or more.

The price of the US gold disk is steady. The daily offer is $705-710, and the shipping price is $680-690. The delivery is close to US $640-650, and the negotiation is maintained at about $650, and the paction is limited.

Inventory, as of the end of March, PTA social inventory still has 200-250 tons between, after Xiang Lu Petrochemical parking, PTA accelerated inventory, but at present, social inventory is still at a high level.

Current domestic

Factory operating rate dropped to around 58%, due to the Far East petrochemical, Xiang Lu petrochemical PTA device restart time is unknown, the domestic demand for PX will be reduced, which will gradually emerge after the end of the speculation.

Xiang Lu

The device failed to restart as the market rumors last weekend. It is speculated that the short-term Xiang Lu petrochemical PTA plant will not drive for the time being. Xiang Lu Petrochemical has to purchase PTA from the spot market to maintain the contract users.

"This has stimulated the PTA market.

And crude oil shocks are strong, Asian PX prices rise, costs support PTA.

High cost, quick inventory and other short term advantages will prevail, and futures multi funds will actively pull up the price.

JOYOU's information market analyst, an Guang, thinks.

Central Plains futures analyst

The starting point of this rise is the last day of Qingming holidays. Tenglong aromatics exploded, igniting the enthusiasm of the market.

The restart of the 4 million 500 thousand ton PTA unit which was restarted last weekend failed to ignite the second enthusiasm of the market. In addition, in March, the Far East petrochemical company declared bankruptcy. The PTA capacity of the Far East petrochemical company was 3 million 200 thousand tons, plus the 4 million 500 thousand ton capacity of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company, which totaled 7 million 700 thousand tons, accounting for 17.8% of the total capacity of 4335 at the end of 2014. Two events in 3 and April were related to the short-term loss of nearly 20% PTA capacity, which also caused the oversupply of PTA and the serious loss situation, which brought relief to the PTA industry.

The downstream polyester industry has been gradually recovering from the second half of 2014, and the profit is good. It has the ability to bear the cost pressure caused by the rise of PTA.

The rise of PTA is based on the short term shrinkage of production capacity, and the demand for profit is restored. Now PTA loses 200-300 yuan per ton.

"After breaking through the pressure level of 5100 yuan / ton, PTA is also facing the pressure of 5232 yuan / ton in the early stage. If we break through this pressure level again, it will be possible to march to 5500 yuan / ton."

Cai Li said.

According to an Guang, the downstream polyester factories are not enthusiastic about purchasing PTA, because the polyester filament has experienced a high yield after the beginning of last week. Downstream factories are losing their enthusiasm for replenishment, and many downstream factories have certain stock materials, while polyester staple fiber prices are small, and production and sales in the market haven't improved in real terms. Therefore, the overall production and marketing of polyester factories has not been improved continuously, and the demand level has inhibited the PTA increase.