Shenzhen And Hong Kong Are More Important Than Shanghai And Hong Kong.

The deep fire of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong has a great relationship with Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Shenzhen in January 5, 2015.

Although it is only a phrase by the leader, Shenzhen and Hong Kong must be carefully considered, and from the perspective of the overall economic structure, Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong can undoubtedly help the mainland economy further open its capital market in the process of reform.

As a special economic zone adjacent to Hongkong, Shenzhen and Hong Kong should go ahead in theory.

In 2007, the "through-train of Hong Kong stocks" attracted the attention of the market. Actually, it originated from the huge demand for Hong Kong stocks invested by the mainland, and was eventually terminated because of the conflict with China's current foreign exchange management policy.

In 2009, Li Xiaojia, chief executive of HKEx, took office after frequent office trips to lobby domestic regulators, two major exchanges and high-level State Council members.

Like Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong, the implementation of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong will help attract foreign capital into the A share market, improve the valuation system between A shares and overseas markets, and then enhance the worrying ability of A stock market again.

Hong Kong stock market can be said to be one of the more mature overseas markets. Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong and Shanghai and Hong Kong through A and H-share channels are more conducive to the introduction of overseas institutional investors, gradually changing the market structure dominated by individual investors and cultivating long-term investment concept.

The securities market is only one aspect. Shenzhen Hong Kong pass needs to become an important catalyst for RMB internationalization, allowing the renminbi to become an investment currency in the international capital market through the Hongkong exchange.

The expansion of RMB as an investment currency helps to become the reserve currency of other countries and promote the internationalization of RMB.

The idea is always ideal, but the reality is not satisfactory.

According to the data published in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, as of December 31, 2014, the total amount of Hong Kong shares was 250 billion yuan, with a total amount of 239 billion 500 million yuan. That is, the average daily amount of Hong Kong shares since the start of the Shanghai Hong Kong and Hong Kong Tong is 318 million yuan; the total amount of Shanghai Stock Exchange is 300 billion yuan, and the balance of the Hong Kong shares is 225 billion 400 million yuan as of December 31, 2014, equivalent to the average daily amount of 2 billion 260 million yuan, close to 6 times the Hong Kong shares.

The cold shoulder of the deal seems to show that mainland investors are not very interested in Hong Kong stocks. The first reason is that the charges for buying Hong Kong stocks through Hong Kong and Shanghai are too expensive. Two, because the trading rules are different, and the three is that the 500 thousand yuan threshold will block some investors out of the door. Four, it is limited that investors can not choose satisfactory stocks.

On the contrary, investors in Hongkong seem to be more interested in A shares.

It is foreseeable that after the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the capital in the South will still be hot, and the capital in the north will need to see the arrangement of policies.

A share investors often open accounts in Shanghai and Shenzhen at the same time when they open accounts in securities companies. Investors who meet the threshold of 500 thousand yuan have already been able to stir up Hong Kong stocks through their accounts. If there is no new Hong Kong stock issue, investors will still be indifferent to the investment of Hong Kong stocks. After all, A shares have already made a lot of money. Why do they have to pay several times of handling fees to stir up risks that are more risky and the proceeds may not be higher?

For Hongkong investors, the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong means more investment targets. Under the condition of global stock market weakness, the gradual increase of A shares will enable more foreign investors to pour in and let them have more choices to make Shenzhen's securities market more popular.

It will be very difficult to make any further changes. Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong can optimize and perfect it on the basis of Shanghai and Hong Kong links. Therefore, the core of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is not "Tong" but "integration".

Geographically, the geographical location of Shenzhen and Hongkong is very convenient. There are very close links between the two areas, including capital flow, information flow and investment ideas. It is expected that the launch of Shenzhen and Hong Kong will play a very good role in promoting the development of both places, the premise is how to formulate rules of the game according to the actual form.

First of all, the restrictions on investors need to be adjusted, though the higher threshold can be protected.

But it also hinders investors from learning in mature markets. Tuition fees still need to be paid. Secondly, the target of Hong Kong stocks needs further expansion, so that investors can have more choices to promote mutual circulation of funds between the two cities.

In any case, Shenzhen and Hong Kong should have new forms of cooperation and create more win-win rather than brutal competition, which will make the market more prosperous through differentiated development.

What we need to pay attention to is the Shenzhen market.

The P / E ratio is quite different from the Hong Kong stock market, and the P / E ratio is usually more than 50 times. The average price earnings ratio of the growth stocks in the Hongkong market usually fluctuate at 20 times. If the gem stock is used as the investment target, the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong can lead to a huge impact on the gem.

However, after all, the start of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong will have six profound impacts on Shenzhen's Hong Kong stock market. First, Shenzhen will usher in a big wave in the stimulation of foreign capital.

Secondly, the deep market can learn from the complete institutional mechanism of the Hongkong stock market separated by a river.

Third, Qianhai can serve as a strategic platform to link Shenzhen and Hong Kong integration. Shenzhen and Hong Kong can not rule out the special task of Qianhai first.

Fourthly, under the background of the difference of capital flows between the two cities, there will be a wave of low tide in the small and medium sized boards and gem boards in the Shenzhen stock market. But in the long run, the small and medium sized boards and the gem of the Shenzhen market will usher in a breakthrough development. The barrier of Shenzhen Hong Kong integration will be completely broken.

Fifth, the scarce assets of Hong Kong stocks will benefit, while high valuation varieties may have a negative impact.

Six, the valuation of Hongkong and Shenzhen gem is several times different. Opening up may cause one-way flow of capital and affect Hong Kong stocks.