Li Xunlei: Next Year'S Monetary Policy Is Aimed At Deleveraging.

The central economic work conference concluded in Beijing in December 11th put forward that China's economy is evolving towards a more advanced stage, a more complicated division of labor and a more rational structure. The economic development has entered a new normal, and is changing from high speed growth to medium and high speed growth. The mode of economic development is shifting from the extensive growth of scale and speed to the intensive growth of quality and efficiency. The economic structure is changing from the incremental expansion to the depth adjustment of the adjustment of stock and the coexistence of excellent and incremental growth. The driving force of economic development is shifting from the traditional growth point to the new growth point.

Specially invited 4 experts and scholars in the field of Finance and economics, focusing on how to accurately understand the spirit of the central economic work conference and how to look at the trend of economic development in 2015, and elaborate on the views and viewpoints -- Li Xunlei, chief economist of Haitong Securities.

The central economic work conference came to a close. The conference put forward the 5 major tasks of economic work in 2015, in which efforts to maintain stable economic growth are at the top.

Prior to the meeting of the Central Political Bureau, it has proposed to adapt itself to the new normal and keep the economic operation in a reasonable range, indicating that the growth rate of the GDP target will be reduced.

How can we achieve the goal of steady growth? The meeting stressed the need to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. A strong positive fiscal means a deficit rate or a further increase. This is consistent with keeping the economy running at a reasonable level.

It is worth noting that the conference has repeatedly referred to risk prevention and control.

The meeting held that "resolving all kinds of risks with high leverage and bubbles" will continue for a period of time.

A moderately tight monetary policy helps to continue to "resolve high leverage and bubbles" in the "new normal", which means that next year's monetary policy also has the task of deleveraging.

How to understand "

To tighten the balance "is mainly on the quantitative tools of money, because the expectation of RMB devaluation in 2015 has been lifted. If foreign exchange holdings are reduced, the supply of base money will be reduced, so the probability of lowering the quota will be greater.

This kind of reduction is technical, that is, too tight will relax, but it does not mean that monetary policy is loosened.

The meeting called for accelerating reform and opening up.

We must dare to bite the bone, dare to risk the beach, dare to go deep water area, and speed up the reform of the economic system.

We should focus on solving the outstanding problems facing development and push forward reform.

From the specific requirements, the reform ideas are more pragmatic, and push forward more vigorously than before, and willing to bear.

Instead of just making big frames.

The meeting also has a new formulation: "the government's own revolution to drive important areas of reform", which means that the administrative system reform, fiscal and taxation system reform will also actively promote, through breaking the interests pattern to defuse local debt, inefficient investment and other risks.

about

The meeting put forward that "to push forward the reform of state-owned enterprises, we should run to the problems, focus on enhancing enterprise vitality and efficiency, enhance the core competitiveness of state-owned enterprises, and establish a modern enterprise system with clear property rights, clear responsibilities and responsibilities, separate government administration from enterprises, and scientific management."

This means that the reform of state-owned enterprises will be more pragmatic and practical. The aim is to enhance the core competitiveness of state-owned enterprises, rather than simply to strengthen supervision and control.

The conference also referred to the aging of the population for the first time, and stressed that economic growth is more dependent on human capital and technological progress.

It means that the change of population structure will further promote the pformation of economic structure. The future economic growth and factor allocation will be more tilted to the labor force, while the interest rate representing capital return tends to decline.

At the same time, it also mentioned for the first time that the carrying capacity of the environment is approaching the upper limit, which means that the status of environmental protection will rise in the future and will pay more attention to the quality of economic development.