Downstream Consumption Of Cotton Is Still "Old".

　 　 Outer cotton Continuation of weakness

On the 11 day, the US Department of agriculture's latest global cotton supply and demand report came out, of which 2014/2015 cotton production increased by 52 thousand tons in the year of 2014/2015, while consumption increased by only 37 thousand tons. In addition, USDA has raised the end of the world cotton inventory to 23 million 375 thousand tons. At present, global consumption is still weak, ICE contracts are expected to remain under pressure.

This year, China's cotton import quota policy has tightened up. Except for the quota of 894 thousand tons and 1%, it is likely that no other quotas will be issued. This makes importers and textile enterprises prohibit the shipping date of the far moon. According to feedback from port traders and domestic textile enterprises, the number of cotton exports to main ports in China has continued to decrease since November, and the total volume has dropped to eighty thousand or ninety thousand tons.

　　 Spinning enterprises Lack of willingness to replenishment

According to the latest statistics of WIND, the added value of textile industry increased by 6.3% over the same period in October, an increase of 1 percentage points from the previous month. However, judging from the trend of the textile industry added value in the past three years, the added value of the textile industry is still low.

In October, China's cotton textile industry purchasing managers index (PMI) was 46%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the previous month. The new order situation of cotton textile enterprises has improved this month, which is also the main reason for the decline of yarn and grey stock in textile enterprises in October. With the passing of the peak season, it is expected that the volume of new orders will be limited. In October, China exported $26 billion 538 million in textile and clothing, a decrease of 7.05% in the annulus, which has been declining for two consecutive months.

At present, consumption is not enough, textile enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. According to the survey data of China cotton information network, as of the end of October, the stock of cotton in the textile enterprises was 482 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 4 thousand and 700 tons from the previous month. Of the surveyed enterprises, 36% reduced cotton inventories and 44% increased cotton inventories. In October, the inventory of cotton industry in textile enterprises increased slightly. On the one hand, before the textile mill experienced a blank period of cotton raw materials, most of the enterprises were short of cotton. When the new flower was listed, the new cotton replenishment stock with better quality was selected. On the other hand, in the early stage of the new flower listing, the textile enterprises went to Xinjiang to purchase high-quality new flowers, so as to prevent the quality of the late listed cotton from falling.

　　 High inventory Restricting the uplink of cotton prices

According to the latest forecast data from USDA, cotton supply and demand in China showed a tight balance pattern in 2014/2015, and the surplus of cotton supply was transferred from 2 million 694 thousand tons in 2013/2014 to 109 thousand tons. In terms of end inventory, although 2014/2015 has been reduced by 120 thousand tons over the previous year, it is still a huge volume of 13 million 533 thousand tons, far exceeding cotton consumption in one year. Therefore, high inventory will continue to restrict the uplink of China's cotton price operation.

To sum up, at the end of this year's end of the cotton market in China, and the current textile consumption in the lower reaches is still not improving, it is expected that the cotton price will remain downward. In addition, we are concerned about the purchasing trend of downstream textile enterprises. After all, Zheng cotton price and spot cotton price show a reverse pattern. When Zheng cotton price is obviously lower than spot price, it is still very attractive for textile enterprises.