The Prospect Of Polyester Staple Fiber Development Is Very Bleak. The Average Load In The Second Half Of The Month May Rise Moderately

In September, the polyester industry chain market as a whole was dominated by the following players, and the decline was not small. Most products fell by more than 6% monthly, and polyester staple fibers also failed to stay out of the way.

　　 upper reaches The raw materials continue to weaken, the cost support collapses, and the price center of polyester staple fiber successively falls below the psychological threshold of 9500 yuan/ton and 9000 yuan/ton. Traders and downstream yarn mills all hold the attitude of buying up rather than buying down. The overall transaction of staple fiber is relatively flat. Only one "one-day tour" market appeared in late September, and the decline slowed down at the end of September after a short period of trading volume. With the increase of inventory pressure, the production reduction and parking of polyester staple fiber manufacturers increased in September. By the end of the month, the average load of the industry was only around 58%, a historical low in the same period.

Based on the expectation that new production capacity will be put into production in the fourth quarter and the bearish attitude in the future, de stocking has become a top priority. Throughout September, the price of polyester staple fiber in Fujian market led the country down, with low prices emerging one after another, and the price war was staged in advance. Four months later, Fujian has once again become the market with the lowest price of polyester staple fiber in China.

According to CCFEI statistics, by At the end of September 2014, the total production capacity of China's original polyester staple fiber was about 6.39 million tons, with only 120000 tons of new production capacity of Shandong Huahong and 20000 tons of new production capacity of Xiamen Hongxin in the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter, the new production capacity of polyester staple fiber industry is expected to reach 430000 tons, of which Ningbo Dafa 80000 tons of low melting point polyester staple fiber new device has been commissioned in the second half of September, and it is expected that qualified products will be available in the middle and late October. In addition, Fujian Jinxing and Shanli Chemical Fiber have a total of 350000 tons of new production capacity of polyester staple fiber, initially intended to be put into production in October. Limited by technical barriers, the total capacity of domestic low melting point polyester staple fiber is less than 200000 tons at present. After the stable operation of Ningbo Dafa's new device, it will have a huge impact on the original supply pattern of low melting point staple fiber.

During the National Day holiday, international oil prices and gold prices fell sharply. The fragile confidence of the bulk commodity market was suppressed. In addition, the confidence in the global economy was insufficient. In the short term, negative factors prevailed. From the perspective of polyester industry chain, the load of PTA industry rebounded to around 70% in September, and is expected to maintain 70%~75% in October. The increase in supply also increases the pressure on raw material manufacturers to ship. In addition, facing the signing of new raw material contracts with polyester manufacturers in 2015, it is expected that the weak tone of raw material market in October will be difficult to change.

Although the cash flow of polyester staple fiber and downstream polyester yarn industry has been effectively improved in September, the willingness to purchase a large number of raw materials is generally not strong due to their own tight funds and future market expectations, and the operating mentality is relatively cautious. The stock of staple fiber increased during the National Day holiday, and it became the consensus of manufacturers to continue to destock in the first half of October. Judging from the production situation of downstream polyester yarn industry, more yarn mills handled recovery Accounts are the primary task, production and marketing are mostly carried out step by step, and the inventory of polyester staple fiber is at a low level. The author believes that the current polyester staple fiber inventory does not meet the conditions for a sharp decline in the short term, nor can it form a strong support for the price.

On the whole, the gathering of negative factors in the polyester industry chain and the continued decline of upstream raw materials are high probability events, which will drive down the price of polyester staple fiber. In addition, the new production capacity may be put into production in October, and the overall psychology of the staple fiber market is empty. If the cash flow can be maintained after the long holiday, and the destocking is smooth, the average load of polyester staple fiber industry may rise moderately in the second half of the month.