New Cotton Starts At A Low Price. Chen Cotton Is Facing A "Cliff Type" Decline.

Awati

Introduction, as of 8 days, some villages and towns and villages have been picking about 30%, compared with 7-8 days last year.

Due to the overall stable weather in the southern Xinjiang region this year, the estimated output per unit area is 300-350 kg / mu, which is basically the same as last year.

According to the agricultural sector data, the total area of long staple cotton in Awati county this year is 600 thousand mu, and it is 50% on the same period last year.

"Mainly last year, they sold a good price, and everyone was very motivated."

A market person said that on October 1st -7, some cotton growers were selling long staple cotton and the price of the cotton ginning mill was 8.0-8.3 yuan / kg. The cost of individual cotton was 8.5 yuan / kg (lint at 36%-37%, moisture 12% or so), and the cost was 22500-23000 yuan / ton, which was 7000-8000 yuan / ton lower than that of last year's long staple cotton market.

The market believes that the target price subsidy of special cotton (including long staple cotton and colored cotton) is 1.3 times that of the land cotton in the Xinjiang cotton direct subsidy rules issued in September 17th, which is considered as a positive signal for the overwintering of Xinjiang long staple cotton.

But cotton farmers have their own ideas: first, for now,

Generally speaking, the market price of long staple cotton is generally lower than that of the same period last year, which is lower than 2.5-3.0 yuan / kg. This makes cotton farmers feel anxious. Second, the area subsidy and production subsidy for cotton are still "a piece of paper", especially "the average price of 9-11 months" has not yet appeared.

As a result, many of the long staple cotton growers are still "not able to talk about the world."

A cotton trader running in Xinjiang said that according to the current situation, the new season long staple cotton entering the mainland market may have to be postponed to the middle of 11 or even later. Of course, it does not exclude individual textile enterprises to advance the purchase of Xinjiang long staple cotton in order to reduce costs.

In particular, the new season long staple cotton listing is a big blow to Chen cotton.

As of October 8th, Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu and other places 137, 237 grade 2013, the price of long staple cotton out of the warehouse is 27500-28300 yuan / ton, 26800-27200 yuan / ton line, compared to the National Day holiday before continued to drop 200-300 yuan / ton.

The cotton trader said that at present, there are not many stocks of long staple cotton in Shandong, Hebei and Jiangzhe and Zhejiang provinces, but it is still overwhelming.

First, the long staple cotton produced in 2013 is basically unattended, because the price is very high except for poor quality. Two, the cost of long staple cotton is now 34000 yuan / ton, while the price is only 28000 yuan / ton line, and the loss is over 6000 yuan / ton.

If the new season long staple cotton flows into the mainland, the market price of long staple cotton will still fall sharply.

Judging from the price difference between new cotton and Chen cotton, there are at least 5000 yuan / ton decline in long staple cotton.

The author analyzes, because of the country's

This year, the listing price of Xinjiang long staple cotton is still down slightly. It is expected that the price of mainland long term cotton entering the mainland will reach 21500-22000 yuan / ton in the middle and late 11.

Moreover, at present, the market price of Xinjiang fine wool cotton is at the line of 13300-13400 yuan / ton, and the price of long staple cotton and fine cotton is about 8000 yuan / ton, which is in a more reasonable position.

Therefore, it is estimated that the price of domestic long staple cotton will decline and the market will be subject to psychological preparation in the middle of October to the middle of November.