Reserve Cotton Sales Policy Adjustment External Cotton Influence Geometry

< p > cotton reserves, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association and the three Department of the national cotton trading market jointly issued a document: since April 1, 2014, the bid price of standard grade cotton has been adjusted from 18000 yuan / ton to 17250 yuan / ton; all textile enterprises that purchase domestic storage cotton in warehouses in the Xinjiang area can bid for the imported cotton according to the proportion of 3:1, and cancel the quantity restriction of textile enterprises to purchase cotton reserves, but the cotton reserves purchased are only limited to textile enterprises.

But cotton textile mills, Cotton Traders (import enterprises) and foreign-related widespread concern about "auction of national cotton 4:1 or 3:1 with a quasi tariff cotton import quotas" rumors did not involve, Qingdao, Shanghai, Zhangjiagang and other places of cotton import enterprises reflect very disappointed.

Some foreign businessmen speculated that the 3-4 month was the period when cotton regulation policies were centralized, so as to stabilize the cotton market, the spot price, and the emotions of farmers, cotton mills and cotton importing enterprises, and would not be "in a hurry".

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< p > then what is the impact of the adjustment of reserve cotton sales on < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > < /a > to the import cotton market? The author analyzes as follows: < /p >

< p > 1. If there is no news about the issuance of cotton import quotas in the short term (no matter what way it is adopted), shipments of bonded cotton, cargo and spot shipment will be much more difficult. < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > bonded warehouse < /a > pressure will only increase.

其一、3月底中国用棉企业比较关注的美国C/A SM、美国EMOT SM、澳大利亚SM以及乌兹别克斯坦SM级棉的保税棉报价分别达到106.5-106.8美分/磅、103.8-104美分/磅、108.5-108.8美分/磅以及107.4-107.6美分/磅，1%关税和滑准关税下的报价分别集中在16150-16900元/吨、16850-17450元/吨(均不计配额的转让价格)，从表面上看同标准级棉的抛储底价基本靠拢，外棉竞争优势很不明显;其二、相对国储棉，保税外棉也普遍存在品级一致性差，尤其是美棉近两年比较突出(低等级高商检数据)、长度不足且机采棉短绒含量偏高，亏重幅度明显高于2%的情况;其三澳大利亚可供的皮棉大多为中后期花，不仅数量不足而且马克隆值偏小、可纺性下滑，乌兹别克斯坦棉性价比偏低且国营出口商要求买家全额预付款才发货，进口企业资金占用压力较大。

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< p > two, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > National storage cotton < /a > the bid price reduction has a relatively large impact on the clearance of external cotton, especially India cotton, a small amount of West African cotton, and Mexico, Brazil and other low grade cotton.

According to the survey, since late March, the price quotas of India cotton S-6, Burkina Faso (Mali, Chad) SM -1-1/8 and Mexico SM-1-1/8 port are respectively 17500-17900 yuan / ton, 18700-18900 yuan / ton, 19200-19300 yuan / ton, significantly higher than the standard level 17250 yuan / ton throw price since April 1st, and from the quality point of view, India cotton and African cotton in 2013 years are not stronger than the 2012 and 2013 national storage cotton index, and the competitive advantage of outer cotton can not be reflected.

However, due to the high price and the low utilization rate of the 1% tariff quotas, the cost of imported enterprises has been "hanging upside down" with the market selling price. Therefore, the cotton prices outside the customs will show a relatively defensive posture. The price reduction is "meat cutting" for traders. Therefore, the paction price will not fall greatly, but it will slow down to a level of 17250 yuan / ton.

The supply of medium and low grade cotton will be very sufficient.

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< p > three, recently, it was learned from relevant departments: the time limit for issuing quotas related to cotton reserves is basically the same as that of last year. The state will distribute the quota to the provinces in the first week of the month, and will issue a batch of processing trade import quotas from the end of March to April. The total quota of processing trade is consistent with that of last year.

In 2013, China imported 4 million 149 thousand and 300 tons of foreign cotton, 30-40 tons of total duty imports and 1-2 tons of import quotas in 2012, and the total quota was about 3 million 500 thousand tons a year. Therefore, Port Bonded cotton and many goods that have not yet been shipped do not have to worry about it. (2013, when cotton outside the port is "piled up", cotton merchants and importers are in a terrible state, the Chinese government has issued additional quotas for cotton imports and a large number of port cotton flows into the Chinese market). As long as there are enough processing trade and sliding tariffs on cotton import quotas, the advantages of the cotton in the price and one-time supply will eventually be reflected, only after the customs clearance price is marked by 17250 yuan / ton.

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