Who Controls The Visible Hand Of The Central Bank In The Financial Market?

Things are changing.

After the two sessions, regulators were constantly brewing or launching Internet targeting. Finance The new regulation is letting the industry withstand the test of ice and fire.

After the siege of the balance treasure by the banking sector, the third party payment has also been in trouble. The central bank has not only halted the online credit card business of Ali and Tencent, but also paid the business under the two-dimensional code line. It is said that even the number of consumers through the Alipay a year, the central bank also needs to introduce policy management.

In the recent two national meetings, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out clearly in his government work report: "to promote the healthy development of Internet finance", the whole industry is excited.

At that time, the Internet financial company, whose future was uncertain, was as confident as the "amulet", so that when a Internet Co released the new product, it first placed Premier Li Keqiang's photo on the front page of PPT.

In the process of communicating with the writer, many practitioners are also optimistic. They believe that the focus of the government work report is on the two words of "development", but the subsequent facts prove that the regulatory authorities pay more attention to "health".

Just now, the central bank's investigation and statistics department director Sheng Songcheng and his colleague, Zhang Xuan, have made the market again.

In this article entitled "balance treasure and deposit reserve management", it is put forward that "bank deposits such as balance treasure and other money market funds should be managed by deposit reserve funds. In addition, other non deposit financial institutions are essentially the same in the bank's interbank deposits and the money market fund deposits. In accordance with the principle of unified supervision, we should also implement the deposit reserve management with reference to money market funds.

According to the logic of the article, the essence of the balance Bao is money market fund, which is not an important reason for the high yield of the balance treasure.

The article points out that a prominent feature of the balance Bao - Zeng Li Bao fund is that most of the raised customer funds go to the bank agreement deposit, which accounts for about 95% at the end of 2. This part of the agreement deposits belong to interbank deposits, there is no interest rate cap, nor is the deposit reserve management. The interest rate of this part of the agreement deposit is negotiated by the bank with reference to the interest rate of the interbank market and negotiated with the clients, usually far exceeding the general deposit interest rate, and most of them have signed a protective clause without penalty for early withdrawal.

The main reason why banks can pay higher interest rates on the balance of treasure deposits is that the funds deposited in banks do not need to deposit reserve requirements to the central bank. At present, the deposit reserve ratio of the mainland's large banks is 20.5%, and the reserve requirement ratio of the small and medium-sized banks is also 17%.

According to this logic, Sheng song has calculated an account: assuming that the balance of the treasure - the increase fund of the investment bank of the Zeng Li Bao fund deposit shall be paid 20% of the reserve, according to the 6% of the fund agreement deposit interest rate and the unified 1.62% statutory deposit reserve interest rate of our country, the annual cost of the balance treasure with 500 billion capital scale will increase by about 4 billion 200 million yuan (5000 x 95% * 20% * (6%-1.62%) 42), and the yield will decrease by about 1 percentage points.

This article holds that "because money market funds are applicable to different management policies in relation to the deposits of banks and general deposits, the money market funds such as the balance Bao and Zeng Li Bao can occupy high income and low risk investment channels so as to be in an obvious advantage in competition with bank deposits."

At the same time, based on the consideration of dealing with the liquidity risk brought about by large scale redemption, controlling money creation, improving the effectiveness of monetary policy, ensuring fair market competition and reducing the regulatory arbitrage space, the article suggests that the bank deposits of money market funds such as balance Bao should be managed by reserve fund.

No matter what the purpose of the article is, this proposal and the bank try to reduce it. Yu Bao The demand for revenue coincides. At the same time, no matter how pertinent and far sighted the advice of this article is, there is no mention of interest rate marketization.

A problem that can not be evaded is that it is precisely because of the dual interest rate system that has created the prosperity of "Bao" and other "baby".

In the Chinese financial market, the legacy of the planned economy has never been eliminated, and it has long existed in the name of financial security. The double track system of interest rates is one of them. It has caused the price distortion of the Chinese capital market, and the current shadow banking problem is given by it.

While the interbank market belongs to a relatively marketable trading place, the price of funds (interest rate) is negotiated jointly by the two sides of the transaction, so that there is a deposit agreement invested by the monetary fund, which in itself is a market-oriented trading activity, because letting the balance treasure get high returns, touches the interests of the bank, instead, it now carries the name of disturbing the financial order, and it must impose the "fetter" of the deposit reserve ratio.

Let me talk about it again. deposit The reserve itself is a regulatory means of the planned economy. It will withdraw gradually in the future financial market reform. Even Sheng Songcheng's article acknowledges that although the developed countries have the deposit reserve ratio control tool, the reserve requirement ratio of many countries is even zero, which is no longer the main monetary policy regulation tool. At present, the deposit reserve rate of the Bank of China [-0.40% funds research and reporting industry is as high as 20.5%, which seriously occupies bank deposits and becomes a shackle to limit the expansion of bank credit.

In principle, banks should hate this "shackle", but the fact is that the banking industry has become accustomed to and enjoyed this yoke, and this new "welfare" should be given to the freshmen's balance treasure. The relevant experts of the China Banking Association said that the balance treasure should also deposit reserves with Bank of China.

The requirement for money market funds to deposit reserves is usually in the name of fair competition. Just like a marathon race, a group of slow moving elderly people let young people advance at their speed.

As a member of the central bank, the author of the article does not reflect on the surge in M2 over the past ten years (more than 100 trillion), and whether the money market fund, which gaze at the trillions of money markets, is not worth the candle, because controlling inflation is the central goal of the central bank. At the same time, although the deposit reserve in the current China lacks market control tools, there is still a need for existence, but blindly relying on this quantitative control tool is also a kind of regulatory inertia?

The financial market is changing rapidly. The central bank's actions to prevent systemic financial risks are reasonable. However, the financial innovation can not be suppressed in the name of promoting the healthy development of the market. The risk of China's financial market is mainly due to the incomplete reform of the market, and the promotion of profitability and exchange rate marketization is the best way to resolve risks, rather than to suppress innovation by avoiding risks.

Therefore, when Central Bank When we supervise the big bang to Internet finance, we have a reason to ask: who will supervise the visible hand of the central bank?