China's Textile Industry Is Expected To Slow Down In The Second Half Of The First Half Of The Year.

< p > in the first half of 2013, < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > textile > /strong > /a > a target= "/a" "" ">" clothing "industry continued the weaker trend in 2012.

Affected by the above, the first half of the year, < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > clothing < /strong > /a > Home Textile plate slightly lost 300 or 3 percentage points in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market.

As of yesterday's close, the shwan apparel home textile index closed at 1236.91 points, down nearly 20% from the highest point in February 8th.

Recently, a number of brokerages have released the medium-term investment strategy of the industry, generally inclined to think that the turning point of the textile sub industry has been established, while the apparel sub industry's performance in the second half of this year still has downside risks.

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< p > the turning point of textile manufacturing has been confirmed by the State Securities (600109). In the first half of the year, textile a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > dress < /strong > /a > plate performance was pointed out. According to the performance of the sub plate, the textile sub plate continued to be better than clothing.

Guo Jin securities analyst Zhang Bin said, "from the perspective of individual stock performance, the top ranking stocks are mainly concentrated in three categories: one is the theme stocks, the second is the leading enterprises in the chemical fiber industry, and the third category is the textile manufacturing leading enterprises benefiting from the weak recovery of downstream demand and the effective integration of the industries. The larger stocks are mainly concentrated on the leading enterprises of textile and clothing retailing in the past few years, which are focused on channel expansion."

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< p > Dongguan securities has four reasons to believe that the sub industry has already passed the worst time and the overall situation is improving.

"First of all, most of the prices of raw materials have dropped to a lower level in 2009.

Second, after two years' de stocking, the digestion of raw materials for high priced raw materials is coming to an end. Inventory pressure has dropped to the lowest level, while the inventory growth of finished goods has been slowing down.

Dongguan securities analyst Wei Hongmei pointed out, "third, external demand has stabilized and picked up signs.

The increase in exports last year was mainly driven by price increases. The number of exports increased substantially this year.

Export volume is the most rigid indicator of overseas demand.

Fourth, profitability has bottomed out.

Thanks to the decline in raw material costs and the rise in export growth, gross margins and net interest rates began to pick up gradually.

With the completion of domestic apparel inventory, the textile industry chain is expected to usher in a new replenishment demand, and profitability is expected to rise again.

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< p > > a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > brand clothing < /strong > /a > performance is still downward due to factors such as weak consumption, abnormal weather, high clothing prices, and online shunting, and so on. Before May this year, the retail sales of clothing on the quota increased by only 11% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down by 5 percentage points over the same period in 2012.

According to the classification, children's wear is the best sales, men and women wear and < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > strong > shoes < /strong > /a > product growth rate slows down, bed products show the weakest.

Based on this, CITIC Securities (600030) lowered the annual growth rate of apparel retail sales to 15%.

The broker also pointed out that the rising cost of channel operation will further inhibit the expansion of dealers' willingness, and the corresponding orders are generally prudent, so the annual performance of the sub industry will continue to be dull.

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< p > People's livelihood Securities believes that from the China Daily and the three quarterly trend, the overall performance trend of the brand clothing enterprises is not good in the second half of last year due to the relatively high base number. From a quarterly inventory related indicators, the pressure of home textile, leisure, outdoor and some men's clothing companies has slowed down, and the bottom line of the performance has been seen. However, the uncertain recovery of the terminal will still restrict the release of its performance elasticity.

In essence, the channel structure of brand clothing companies is irrational and the adjustment cycle is longer, which is not conducive to the upward movement of its valuation center.

Dongguan securities further pointed out that although the brand clothing business inventory has improved, but the overall pressure is still greater, this year will continue to inventory.

At the same time, due to the downturn of terminal consumption, the order of franchisees tends to be conservative. Brand Company will continue to increase its support for franchisees, resulting in a decline in the turnover efficiency of accounts receivable.

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< p > in a cautious decline, the views of China Merchants Securities (600999) are relatively optimistic. Although Wang Wei, an analyst, thinks that the terminal sales will remain at the bottom of the shock interval in the second half of the year, it also points out that the big bad interest of the industry has basically been digested and that the next order will be expected to have a low volatility. Therefore, it believes that the valuation risk of the second half of the brand industry is relatively small.

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