Textile Industry 2012 Maintains "Neutral" Rating For The Industry As A Whole
First quarter of 2012
Textile and clothing
Overall business situation: industry economic efficiency, investment, export and domestic sales all maintained growth trend, but the growth rate slowed down compared with the same period last year, and the industry boom in March was slightly revived.
In the first quarter of 2012, the whole industry was in the stage of digestion and renovation, which was affected by economic slowdown at home and abroad, sustained and rapid increase in prices of early products, and increased inventory of weather and retail terminals.
Due to the difference in pricing power and buying and selling mode, the continuous downturn of raw material prices has different effects on raw material manufacturing and brand clothing enterprises. In the first quarter, brand clothing enterprises expect gross profit margin to maintain an upward trend compared with the same period, but the gross profit margin of manufacturing export enterprises will decrease significantly compared with the same period last year.
A quarterly forecast of key listed companies: the whole industry and the first quarter of the whole
situation
On the same side, we expect that most of the brand clothing companies will benefit from the drop in ordering system and the cost of raw materials, and their earnings will continue to grow well, and earnings growth will generally exceed revenue growth.
Home textile sub industry due to the impact of the same base, inventory and real estate regulation, revenue growth is generally lower than clothing, but in March began sales growth and channel level inventory digestion is also in the benign progress.
In terms of manufacturing export enterprises, there will be a marked decline in revenues and profits in the first quarter due to the sluggish external economy and the continued downturn in raw material prices.
Among the key companies, a company with a quarterly profit growth of more than 50% is expected to have a pathfinder and a group of shares. The profit growth is between 30% and 50%, including kannu Di Road, search for special, good news birds, seven wolves, Shanghai Jahwa and Rebecca.
Industry outlook for future business prospects: we believe that in the first quarter, whether for branded apparel companies or export manufacturing companies, they are likely to be the low point of year-round growth. Taking into account the impact of terminal inventory digestion and pre price increase on sales volume mitigation, considering the reasons for the same period last year, the industry profits in the two quarter are expected to gradually improve, and the second half of this year will grow faster than the first half.
Referring to the impact of the last round of economic adjustment on industry consumption, we expect that the gradual improvement of the ring ratio in the two quarter may be a gradual process. The adjustment time of brand clothing needs to be shorter than that of export manufacturing enterprises.
Investment strategies and recommendations:
Throughout the year 2012, we maintained our early view and maintained "neutrality" for the industry as a whole.
Grade
In the two quarter of the order data will be clear, continue to be optimistic about the growth of strong brand clothing enterprises, the annual recommended clothing companies, the annual recommended varieties are classified as follows: seven wolves, Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna, Pathfinder, long Zi shares, nine Mu Wang, Shanghai Jahwa and good news birds.
Considering the current point of view, we expect that the yield of the above key companies will reach more than 20% by the end of this year.
With regard to the industry investment strategy for the two quarter, we recommend the white horse stocks with the best year-round growth and relatively good quarterly growth expected: seven wolves, Pathfinder, fuanna and the PEG.
Two quarter industry
Investment
Level risk: the external economy and domestic economic fluctuations have led to a repeat of the two quarter retail sales of branded apparel.
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