In The Second Half Of The Year, China Will Still Face Greater Pressure Of Imported Inflation

In the National Bureau of Statistics announced the first quarter price After the increase reaches 5%, how to judge the price trend of this year has become a matter of concern to all parties. Recently, a number of economists said in an interview with reporters that the current price increase is not in the upward channel, but in the downward channel. The factors that promote the price rise have converged, and the price index will show a trend of "high before and low after". As the global inflation expectation has not yet decreased, China will still face greater import in the second half of the year inflation Of pressure 。

Chen Dongqi, vice president of the macro institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that the overall price of this year is still controllable. Although the level of the second quarter may be similar to that of the first quarter, it will converge in the second half of the year. First of all, from the perspective of the relationship between the total economic volume and the total price level, as long as GDP maintains a stable and rapid growth, CPI will not be out of control, and the current growth of the national economy is basically stable. Second, as long as the money supply is stabilized, the overall price level will come down. Since the second half of last year, a series of monetary measures of the central bank have begun to take effect. The growth rate of M2 has slowed down, and the growth rate of M1 is less than m2 for three consecutive months. Third, the relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is tight. The real growth of investment and consumption in the first quarter has declined. As long as investment is controlled below 20% and consumption is controlled at about 13%, the driving factors of demand on prices will be controlled. In terms of aggregate supply, the output of agricultural products has increased for seven consecutive years. Due to the overcapacity of most industrial products, the price elasticity is still relatively large.