Japan'S Earthquake Has Made China'S Short-Term Inflation Situation More Complicated.

Senior economist Lu Zheng commissar of Industrial Bank, 15, said the Japanese earthquake triggered

In March 11th, a magnitude 9 earthquake occurred near Japan, the strongest earthquake ever recorded in Japan.

The nuclear power plant Fukushima nuclear power plant, which has the largest installed capacity in the world, has been shut down and nuclear leaks have been caused by the earthquake, resulting in the shutdown of Japanese automobiles, optical instruments, chips, electronic products enterprises and some steel mills.

Lu commissar analysis pointed out that although the short term decline in commodities, but the space is expected to fall, crude oil will soon be supported, the price of metal commodities will also be supported in the near future.

Overall, the hovering of commodity prices will not change.

On the current domestic impact, Lu commissar believes that the earthquake induced Japanese electronics and automobile enterprises to stop production, may make China's domestic prices in the past long decline in traffic and electronics products, prices rebound, thus making China's domestic short-term inflation situation is more complex.

At the same time, he also pointed out that the cut-off of Japanese enterprises' electronics and automobile businesses may cause a significant impact on China's exports, and the surplus in the next 3-6 months may be at the level of several billion US dollars, and may even continue to run deficits.

Before the data showed that China's economy was obviously affected, Lu commissar predicted that the policy situation would not change radically.

Specifically, it is expected that a reserve rate will be raised in March, but the rate of increase in interest rates will rise to the second quarter. The rate of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will probably slow down, and the annual appreciation of the US dollar will be adjusted from the previous 5-6% to 4-5%.

Finally, Lu commissar pointed out that in the future, we should pay close attention to the intensity of the return of the yen and its impact on the regional economy, and closely monitor the situation of China's international capital liquidity after the temporary disappearance of the high surplus.