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The Dispute Between Grain And Cotton Will Not Be Acclimatized.

2011/2/11 17:00:00 71

If we leave the soil of China, the dispute over land between some grains (such as wheat) and cotton may not be possible.

New lake futures analyst

Liu Qing

Introduction, take the American crop production, wheat planting is generally in the north, cotton is concentrated in the south, the two have no "intersection", only cotton and corn planting will be some conflict.

Even if the price relationship between grain and cotton has changed significantly, the change of planting area will not be directly proportional to output. It depends on the effect of weather on the yield per unit area. The price of the two party may not rise alternately due to the dispute over land.

Theoretically, farmers should respond to the price changes of different crops: when the price of wheat rises, the area of wheat planted may increase in the coming year, and the increase in area and output will inhibit the rise in prices.

But if we leave the advanced ones,

Combined futures

Market development of agriculture, grain and cotton dispute is not necessarily in line.

Some industry experts, for example, farmers in western countries often take part in the futures market to lock in profits and guard against risks after choosing crops. However, there is no such risk control mode in China. Farmers can not choose crops that are planted next year according to price, because they lack the ability to guard against falling prices.

On the basis of the existing agriculture in China, the pmission of "price planting area price" may fail.

For example, people in the industry say that this year's drought has affected the production of some major wheat producing areas. Meanwhile, a lot of funds have started to stir up the price of wheat. But does this mean that there will be a "compensatory" increase in wheat planting and production in the future?

In such a trend, the dispute between grain and cotton will not run, but will run in the opposite direction.

If there is no drought this year, even if

cotton

The yield is higher than that of wheat and corn, and farmers' willingness to grow cotton may be lower.

Although cotton planting can bring higher income than grain, cotton plantation has higher labor costs, and China's grain production has the lowest purchase price and related subsidies. Many farmers do not watch the market price to produce, but because of the protection of "price floor", they choose to grow grain.

Cotton cultivation lacks such protection.

See the thunder, said: "so the grain and cotton dispute is not simply a strong price relationship between you and me, but also affected by specific policies and weather."