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2010 Why Is Cotton Crazy?

2010/8/19 9:22:00 40

In addition to the northern hemisphere being "burned" hot, a variety of

Agriculture products

Prices are also soaring.

Compared with agricultural products such as wheat, whose prices are soaring, the cotton that is not so impressive is not to show weakness.

Last week, international cotton prices rose to a new high in two years, the ICE cotton price jumped 3.2% in October to 86.90 cents per pound, the highest since March 2008, reaching its highest level in 15 years.

Although most of the fourth largest cotton producing countries and second largest importers in the world suffered floods in Pakistan this summer, the cotton harvest has been affected, but the craziness of cotton prices is not just due to abnormal weather.

Theoretically, the market price of commodities will be determined by its supply-demand relationship.

From this point of view, in the year 2009-2010, cotton consumption in the world exceeded the output by 15 percentage points, which led to a sharp decline in international cotton stocks, resulting in a surge in cotton prices.

The US Department of agriculture predicts that this year's cotton inventory will only be about 40% of the annual demand, the lowest level in 15 years.

Some analysts attribute this change in supply and demand to China.

Vigorous demand

。

Cotton has become so tight, of course, from its strong demand for consumer terminals. This demand is most probably from the textile and garment industry.

However, as a "world factory", the demand for China's textile industry has increased to a certain extent, showing the recovery of external demand.

Like copper, as a barometer of the global economy, cotton demand is also in line with the world economic recovery.

At the same time, as the world's largest cotton exporter, the enthusiasm of American cotton growers is probably affecting the cotton prices.

Because the price of soybeans is much higher than that of cotton and is easier to grow, many American farmers are pursuing it.

profit

Maximizing the abandoning of cotton seeds, this will inevitably affect the yield.

Of course, cotton price crazy behind the scenes pushing hands, less speculative speculators.

"Shortage" and "rising" are often the targets of speculative capital.

The cotton futures price has risen from the low to the present, and the long capital has played an indispensable role.

In April, India launched a policy of banning cotton exports, which triggered a wave of speculation.

Although the gap between supply and demand of cotton is still large in the short term, there is room for cooling this hot cotton price.

The planting area in the United States has increased by 20% this year. Favorable weather conditions may also create the biggest increase in single production in 73 years. New cotton production in India and Australia is expected to increase. In addition, India may cancel the ban on printing and export from October 1st.

But who knows, in this year of "garlic you ruthless" and "beans you play", as long as there are crazy desires and out of control funds, I am afraid that it is possible to create the next crazy price.