ICE Cotton: Do We Need To Observe The Continuation Of The Cotton Rebound? (7.23)

Export data is good. American cotton Continue to rise

Overnight data showed that the US cotton exported 83 thousand and 200 tons a week, and the delivery stock was only 75782 packages. The supply of cotton that could be used for deliveries led to investment buying. In December, it rose 0.78 cents to 74.71 cents / pound in the past month's contract, and it continued to challenge the pressure level of 75 cents / pound throughout the day at 73.58-74.74 cents / pound. At present, although the market is still worried about the uncertainty of the economic recovery, but the continuous good export shows that downstream consumption has not been affected, which may support the ICE cotton break away from the weak pattern and break through the pressure of 75 cents / pound to continue upward.

Technically, overnight ICE cotton prices are high in Zhongyang. Although cotton prices are still suppressed by 75 cents / pound line, KD and MACD indicators continue to fall short. However, the December contract has broken through the short term 13 day moving average, and the above two indicators have formed a trend of bonding and forming a long gold fork. The MACD index green column has continued to shorten and is about to stand firm on the 0 axis. ICE cotton is expected to gradually strengthen and break through the pressure level of 75 cents / pound. It is recommended to cautiously increase the ICE period cotton. If it is expected to be verified, a new round of rally will be launched, and 80 cents / pound will be challenged again.

　　 Zheng cotton Yesterday, shrinkage and storage, and the market was weak. The popularity of the whole market was still weak. However, it is expected that Zheng cotton will challenge the pressure level of 16400 yuan / ton on the support of ICE cotton rising on Friday. If we can increase the volume of the warehouse and break through the short-term pressure level, we can increase our holdings by more than one single target, with a target of 16900 yuan / ton in the medium term, otherwise we will have to rely on the reduction of the pressure level. We will continue to buy after the cotton price is callback and pay close attention to the 16000-16400 yuan / ton level. (Wanda futures Du Ying)

ICE cotton continues to rebound in mid range, China factor again highlights.

Last night, driven by the US stock market rally, crude oil, nonferrous metals, soybean oil and sugar and so on rose. The ICE cotton rose second consecutive trading days. The US cotton weekly export sales report showed that the new year's contracted shipment reached a new high of 65 thousand tons, further showing that the current low demand for international textile mills increased, and the delivery of cotton stocks on the stock exchange dropped significantly. The 73-75 US partition is expected to continue to be collated.

from market On the news side, the external analysis pointed out that the FedEx, Caterpillar and AT&T and other companies made more profit than expected and raised their performance expectations. The euro zone's manufacturing and service industries have increased, which has raised confidence in the market. However, the number of Americans claiming unemployment at the beginning of last week was 464 thousand higher than expected, and the 5.1% decline in second-hand housing sales in June was still a sign of weakness in the US economy. But the US stock market sharply increased last night. Our view is that this is still mainly due to the recent rebound in China's stock market, and that China's policy is expected to be tied up in the second half of the year, thus providing a more direct relationship with confidence in the international market. I believe this is also an important factor affecting the international market. China's domestic stock market has bounced back from 2400 points, and since July 22nd, it has reached 2562 highs since the end of June, which has triggered a favorable turn in market sentiment and increased preference for risky assets. Meanwhile, domestic commodity markets, industrial metals and energy chemical industries, which were weakened earlier, have also been on a low rebound. Under the good environment, agricultural products continue to rebound at the end of June.

Zheng cotton yesterday opened the cross star line, opened a new high of 18475 yuan in September of last month, and continued to be praised by the buyers for the long term low contract area. The investment value interval is relatively clear, and the market is expected to continue to strengthen in the near future. Operation on the 1 and May low interval continue to absorb more. (pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

The cotton price rose in the short term and remained in a short-term pattern.

On Thursday, the ICE cotton contract opened at 74.04 in December, fluctuated between 73.58-74.74 and us, and was driven by investor buying. The supply of cotton that could be used for delivery was tight, and the contract rose in recent months. The cotton futures rose by 0.78 cents, or 1.06%, at 74.71 cents. In December, the United States cotton technology received a star line, with a shadow, closed on the 5 and 10 day moving average, breaking the original wedge, the high point and the low point is no longer down, the form will be expected to become a trend of cross trend, the possibility of short-term continuation of sideways finishing is too large. In terms of fundamentals, the US cotton itself has not changed much. From the sales point of view, the weekly export report of agricultural products released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) shows that the US cotton sale is 382 thousand packs, higher than the 354 thousand and 200 package last week, and the sales are good. It is expected that there will be some support for the formation of the period cotton, but the pressure of output growth has not changed. The demand for next year is uncertain. Therefore, the fundamentals do not support short-term cotton growth in the short term and keep the cotton shake in the short term.

On the domestic side, Zheng cotton returned to the previous situation of reducing the stock and reducing the warehouse position in January, and the early single price reduction pushed up the price to 16310. After that, the price dropped due to the bull trading, and the trading volume was slack all day, and finally closed at 16255, up 60 points. As the US cotton continued to pick up yesterday, the expected cotton will maintain its upward trend yesterday, with a possible fluctuation interval of 16300-16400. On the operation, September can not be caught up, while the early January can continue to hold. (Changjiang futures Wang Jian)

Short term rebound hard to change medium term downtrend

ICE cotton futures rose on Thursday and the most active December contract rose 78 points to 74.71 cents. Thursday's futures market was much more volatile, with strong industrial earnings in the two quarter and a three month high in the euro area purchasing managers index, which pushed the stock market up. This atmosphere of interest spread to the commodity futures market. Crude oil and metals led to a rise. Other commodities also rose to varying degrees. In addition, cotton stocks for us cotton could be used for delivery, and the contradiction between supply and demand before the advent of new cotton also supported cotton prices. ICE cotton futures rebounded sharply after the shocks.

Domestic cotton spot prices continue to callback, cotton yarn prices also steadily decline, sales are slack, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the current market focus is the cotton production in the next quarter, foreign cotton producing countries such as the United States, Central Asia, West Africa and other climatic conditions are ideal, conducive to cotton growth, and China is currently in the rainy season, heavy rainfall, the impact on cotton has yet to be evaluated, the domestic market will be the weather situation speculation.

Based on the above factors, the cotton market will rebound somewhat. In the short term, the whole market will be a shock market, but it is only a rebound. The sustained rise may not be great. But in the medium to long term, it is difficult to maintain high prices, and will still fall the following.