Global Trade Volume Declines USDA February Monthly Report Global Cotton Supply Is Weak

Cotton: The ending inventory in the balance sheet of American cotton in 2023/24 was lower than that in the previous month, the export increased, the factory use decreased, and the output remained unchanged. According to the strong shipment volume and sales speed so far, the export forecast was raised by 200000 packages to 12.3 million packages.

Similarly, as the domestic spinning activity in the United States is still sluggish, it is expected that the cotton mill will reduce the use of 150000 bales. At present, it is estimated that the ending inventory is 2.8 million packages, which is equivalent to 20% of the total disappearing quantity. The average annual selling price of upland cotton received by producers is expected to be 77 cents per pound, 1 cent higher than that in January.

The ending inventory of global cotton in 2023/24 this month decreased by nearly 700000 bales, which was due to the reduction of beginning inventory and production. Global consumption has barely changed, as the growth of China and Vietnam is offset by the decline of consumption in Turkey, the United States and Thailand. The inventory at the beginning of the period decreased by 250000 bales compared with that in January, mainly due to the reduction of Argentine cotton output in 2022/23.

It is estimated that the global cotton output will decrease by 355000 bales in 2023/24 this month, and the production reduction in Australia and Benin will be partially offset by the small increase in other places. The global trade volume decreased by nearly 200000 bales, because China's import volume increased by 500000 bales, but the import volume of India, Pakistan, Thailand and Turkey decreased to offset. The export volume of the United States, Burkina Faso and Turkey is high, while that of Brazil, Argentina and Australia is low.