Review Of Chemical Fiber Industry Chain In May 2020 And Prospect For June

The first part is brief introduction.

In May, the upstream and downstream products of polyester industry chain showed a trend of upward trend. The steady rebound of international crude oil has strong support for the industry chain market. OPEC+ and oil producing countries and other favorable stimulation, the international crude oil has steadily rebounded in the first half of the year, while the industrial chain market has been on the high side. However, because the market supply and demand fundamentals are still weak, in the last ten days, as the international crude oil tends to be collated and the market lacks continuous good impetus, the market rebound is limited, and the industrial chain market remains narrow.

Table 1 list of products in chemical fiber industry in May

　　 Source: LIAN

As shown in Table 1, in terms of the link ratio, PX (CFR Taiwan) increased by 3.81% in May, 6.45% in PTA, 7.28% in MEG, 4.12% in polyester chip, 3.36% in polyester bottle, 3.36% in polyester, and 2.45% in polyester.

The second part is about the fluctuation and trend of chemical fiber industry chain in May.

　　 Source: LIAN

The Jin Lian chemical fiber industry chain has monitored the monthly average price of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials. As shown in Figure 1, the monthly average price of chemical fiber products has risen in May, and the monthly increase has been maintained at 3-8%. The biggest increase is polyester filament, up 8.18%, the smallest PET bottle piece, up 3.36%; polyester fiber in chemical fiber products fell 2.45% from last month.

　　 Source: LIAN

In May, according to the statistics of the products in the chemical fiber industry chain, as shown in Figure 2, the market rebound of chemical fiber industry chain was the main factor in the month, and the overall decline was a significant decline compared with the same period last year. From the year-on-year data, we can see that the overall decline is between 19-45%, the biggest decline is PX, the fall is 45.53%, and the smallest decline is ethylene glycol, or 19.08%.

Market analysis of third main products of differentiated fiber chain

PX

In May, the Asian PX market went up sharply. As of the end of the month, Asian PX estimated 462 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 482 US dollars / ton CFR Taiwan / China, up 21 US dollars / ton at the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, coincided with the international labor day, the domestic market was closed, but during the period of continuous rebound in international crude oil, the PX market steadily increased, especially after the first day of the holiday. Chemical products generally rose, and the upstream and downstream products rose to varying degrees. However, due to the weak fundamentals of the PX, PX began to maintain a high level of supply, and there was a pressure of supply in the market, and the mentality of the industry turned to be cautious, PX and downstream PT. A continuous accumulation of stock based, merchants shipments increased. In the last ten days, as oil demand resumed gradually, international crude oil showed a wave of rising trend. Aromatics products basically showed up. In addition, the downstream PTA market also recovered somewhat, and PX was in good condition. At the end of the month, naphtha performance was weak, cost supporting collapse, PX buying enthusiasm weakened, merchants offer loose, atmosphere was empty. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the PX settlement price in May was 4110 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan / ton from last month's settlement. In May, the average price of CFR Taiwan / China was 485.5 US dollars / ton, a 3.81% higher than the annulus rate, 45.53% lower than the same period last year, the lowest price appeared in May 5th of 461 US dollars / ton, and the highest price appeared in May 20th of 508 US dollars / ton.

PTA

In May, the PTA spot market narrowed upward and the overall turnover was in general. At the beginning of the month, crude oil price volatility narrowed, cost side support for the PTA market was strong, PTA operating rate remained at a high level, and high inventories still suppressed market prices, PTA spot market upward pressure was heavier; despite the external economic restart to improve demand expectations, there was no obvious improvement in terminal substantive demand, and downstream polyester production and sales performance was weak, and the market maintained a shock pattern. On the 14 day, the East China main port's spot offer was executed by 2009 contracts minus 160 yuan / ton, and the delivery was reduced by 170 yuan / ton, and the discussion was around 3270-3320 yuan / ton. In the middle of the year, the price of crude oil increased narrowly, the cost side strengthened the PTA market, and the temporary shutdown of the 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang equipment and the reduction of supply led to the PTA market continuing to expand. However, PTA stocks remained high, while the downstream demand performance was weak, and the market lacked substantial positive impetus, and the majority of them waited. On the 21 day, the East China main port's spot offer was executed by 2009 contracts minus 120-130 yuan / ton, and the delivery was reduced by 140 yuan / ton, and the discussion was around 3560-3590 yuan / ton. Crude oil price volatility continued to narrow in the late part of the year. Some PTA plant installations were postponed for overhaul. The high operating rate made the supply still adequate. Meanwhile, the high PTA storage was pressing against the market. With the improvement of domestic clothing and textile consumption and the expected recovery of foreign trade orders, the demand was expected to pick up, supporting the price formation and the market shock. On the 28 day, the East China main port's spot offer was executed by 2009 contracts minus 125-130 yuan / ton, and the delivery was reduced by 135 yuan / ton, and the discussion was around 3470-3510 yuan / ton. In May, the average price of PTA market in East China was 3405 yuan / ton, up 6.45%, up 44.53% compared with the same period last year, the highest price appeared at 3590 yuan / ton on 21 days, and the lowest price appeared in 3240 yuan / ton on 13 days.

MEG

In May, the glycol market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of May, under the low price of crude oil, the market sentiment remained empty, and the atmosphere in the trading area was slack. In mid May, with the gradual reduction of the OPEC+ conference's output reduction effect, the international crude oil prices continued to rebound, ethylene glycol was dragged by cost, and the spot market price once raised to 3600 yuan / ton. By the end of May, the adjustment of international crude oil prices and the market outlook of ethylene glycol had returned to the fundamentals. However, the supply and demand relationship of ethylene glycol market was improving slowly, and the high inventory level of port brought pressure on the market price. Close to 28 days at 3580-3590 yuan / ton to discuss.

PET bottle flakes

In May, the domestic bottle grade PET market showed a general trend of rebound. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil rose to a higher level. The first day after the festival, the PTA market of polyester raw materials rebounded, and the cost of the East China market rose to 5400-5500 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the raw material PTA market tends to be collated, and the market lacks continuous driving force. The bottle grade PET market remains narrow. In the middle of the year, the market trend of raw materials PTA is weaker, cost support is weakened, market mentality is weaker, distributors sell goods at a small price, and the focus of the market talks has dropped slightly. Beginning with the beginning of the month, with the continuous rebound of international crude oil, the PTA market of polyester raw materials is strong and the cost support is enhanced. Bottle maker's offer increased steadily, and the focus of market discussion gradually rose to a high level of 5550-5700 yuan / ton, but as the market continued to rise, the downstream continued to follow up confidence, and the market turnover declined. In the second half of the year, the international crude oil market was sorted out, the polyester raw material PTA market weakened slightly, the cost support was insufficient, and the market discussion center dropped slightly to 5500-5650 yuan / ton. During the month, the cash producers' spot resources were more intense. Most manufacturers began to take orders in the 3-4 quarter, and the manufacturers had a strong intention. The downstream is cautious and wait-and-see. As of May 29th, the average price of the bottle grade PET market in East China in May was 5504 yuan / ton, up 3.36% compared to the same period, down 27.24% from the same period, the highest price in May 21st was 5700 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared in the May 11th of 5350 yuan / ton.

PET chip

In May, the market of polyester chip was strong and the overall trading atmosphere was good. During the May 1 holiday period, the price of some polyester chip factories increased by 50 yuan / ton under the influence of the international crude oil rise. On the return of the holiday, the polyester market has been pushed up, the PET chip factory's quotation has been raised by 50-200 yuan / ton, the downstream raw materials are appropriately purchased, the production and sales volume of the polyester chip market is increasing, and the focus of the market transaction continues to rise. Subsequently, the raw material PTA had a narrow range of shock, cost support generally, and raw materials stocked in the early stage of digestion, production and marketing of polyester chips remained light trend, plus the influence of profit margins, polyester filament production decreased, polyester chip production increased significantly, resulting in some pet chip factories actively shipping at low prices, and the focus of market transactions steadily weakened. In the middle of the month, raw material PTA is running strong, the cost is well supported, and the downstream orders are better and the raw materials are properly purchased. Therefore, the production and sale of polyester chip market is flat as a whole, and the polyester chip factories are mainly priced and shipped. Near the end of the month, the market is near the low season, the demand is slightly weakened, and the upstream cost is generally supported. As of May 28th, the average price of the polyester chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 4649 yuan / ton this month, up 4.12%, up 34.82% from the same period last year, the highest price in May 19th was 4800 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared at 4450 yuan / ton on the 13 day.

Polyester staple fiber

In May, the polyester staple market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the rise of international crude oil prices led to the rebound of polyester raw materials, and the price of polyester staple fiber had dropped to the lowest level near the previous stage. Downstream replenishment was phased, and polyester production and marketing were better. Therefore, on the first day of the long holiday, polyester and short manufacturers increased their quotations at around 200-300 yuan / ton, followed by a short callback in the polyester staple market, and the lower wait-and-see mentality dominated. Wait-and-see is the main concern. Most manufacturers' quotations basically remained stable, and the focus of discussions fell. Mid month, driven by the rise of crude oil, raw materials PTA prices rise, polyester staple fiber manufacturers have increased the offer, the lower reaches to buy better atmosphere, local production and sales surge, but after the price increases, buyers follow up efforts slightly weakened, the overall production and marketing weakened, the price showed a trend of adjustment. Later this month, there was enough raw material inventory in the downstream cotton mill, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high. Polyester and short factory inventory was low, and there was a large demand for replenishment in the field, and the trading atmosphere of polyester staple market was light, partial concessions were magnified, and prices dropped slightly. As of 28 days, the average price of PET staple market in East China in May was 5740 yuan / ton, down 2.45%, down 28.92% compared with the same period last year. The highest price appeared in May 22nd of 6950 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared in 5500 yuan / ton on 13 days. Sinopec May 1.4D direct spinning polyester staple fiber settlement price of 6025 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton from last month. Jiangsu San Fang Lane chemical fiber polyester staple price 1.4D half light polyester short May settlement price reported to 5775 yuan / ton.

The fourth part forecasts and prospects.

Gold Union forecast, June polyester industry chain market or maintain the shock operation. Because of the uncertainties in the current market, the rebound in international crude oil is limited. The market for polyester feedstock PTA and ethylene glycol will be broadly adjusted next month, and the cost will be generally supported. However, the demand for terminal weaving is still weak, and textile is about to enter the traditional off-season. Weak demand has put pressure on the market. Therefore, in June polyester products market overall trend or continuation interval finishing. The following are the outlook for each product's future:

　 PX: Jin Lian Chuang expects the PX market to maintain its shock pattern in June. PX supply remained at a high level, but with the ease of domestic epidemic, terminal polyester is expected to improve, and downstream PTA production profit is good, strong demand for raw material PX, PX or will be in a slow inventory process, in addition, PX loss is aggravated, enterprises may have a slight reduction in production.

　 PTA: Jin Lian Chuang predicts that the PTA market will remain strong in June. In the near future, PTA is expected to be relieved by the expected impact of PTA maintenance. As a result, the decline of PTA storage is declining, while downstream demand is expected to pick up gradually in the wake of domestic apparel textile consumption improvement and foreign trade orders recovery, and will be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. At the end of both supply and demand, the price of crude oil will be repaired at the same time. In the short term, the price of PTA will increase. However, at present, PX is weak and high processing fees need to be paid attention to whether PTA factory overhaul can be fulfilled as scheduled.

　　 MEG: In June, ethylene glycol market was dominated by wide concussion. At present, the cost end of crude oil is highly collate, followed by rising strength, glycol market logic back to fundamentals. From the supply side, the domestic installation and restart plan coexisted in June, and the supply side increased the market pressure again. From the demand side, although the weaving industry has improved, the current load has not yet returned to normal level. In June, entering the traditional low textile season, the recovery of terminal demand is still a long process. The relationship between ethylene glycol and supply and demand needs to be improved for a long time.

　　 Polyester PET: Jin Lian Chuang expects June polyester PET market or narrow shocks. Supply side, polyester PET plant operating rate or basically maintained, but by the end of May, the industry's spot inventory overall low, it is expected that the supply pressure is not great. Demand side, the June fiber grade PET downstream is in the traditional consumption off-season market, but the bottle grade PET downstream is in the traditional peak season of consumption, the overall market demand is still acceptable. On the whole, in the middle of June, the local supply pressure of polyester PET market will appear, but the overall fluctuation of the market is narrower. We should pay close attention to the international crude oil trend and the upstream raw material market trend.

　　 Polyester fiber: Golden alliance is expected to start in June, with a slight concussion in the polyester fiber market. In the near future, PTA is expected to be affected by overhaul, and there may be a possibility of bottoming up for crude oil prices. In the short term, PTA prices or shocks will be strong enough to support the cost side. The demand for polyester fiber in May mostly depends on the upstream raw materials to release favorable factors to stimulate terminal and traders replenishment. Now the price of crude oil has gradually returned to the right track, and there has not been a marked rise in downstream weaving demand, and the polyester fiber market will enter the traditional off-season. Therefore, the polyester fiber market will be slightly concussion in June, and will continue to follow the trend of raw materials.