China Cotton Association'S Domestic Cotton Quality Difference Price List Is Officially Released.

Recently, according to "

The regulations on the management of domestic cotton quality difference scales "issued in December 2016," quality difference price list of fine quality cotton with sawtooth processing "," quality difference price list of cotton wool processed by roller roller "and" long staple cotton quality difference price list "(unit: yuan / ton) were released.

According to the monitoring in November 2016

This month only adjusted the difference between the white cotton grade four and the standard grade in the zigzag processed fine staple cotton quality difference price list. Compared with last month, the difference was expanded from -350 to -400.

The remaining index spreads, as well as the "quality difference price list of fine cotton quality in roller processing" and "long staple cotton quality difference price list" remain unchanged.

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This year, in the context of domestic commodity replenishment and global easing, cotton has ushered in a wave of "maverick city". At the end of the year, the Fed's interest rate expectations are further strengthened, and how will the cotton market be interpreted?

Cotton spot prices are likely to rise in December.

We are mainly concerned with domestic and foreign affairs in December.

Based on the analysis of the historical situation, it is found that the probability of domestic cotton, imported cotton, India cotton and European cotton rising in December is no less than 60%, and the rise and fall ratios are far greater than 1, indicating that the spot price of cotton is more likely to rise in December, and the range is relatively large.

Accelerated US dollar or overdraft fed raise interest rate expectations

The minutes of the November fed meeting suggest that the probability of raising interest rates by the fed in December will increase sharply. Trump may launch a fiscal stimulus after winning the election, which also forces the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy as soon as possible. However, the US dollar index has reached a new high this year, which has obviously crossed its original moderate upward channel.

In addition, Italy will open a constitutional referendum in December 4th. Judging from the current poll results, the anti constitutional amendment is in the lead. Once Italy's referendum is not passed, Lenzi resign, Italy may face the risk of leaving Europe, which will trigger fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and further push up the US dollar.

The accelerated US dollar may limit the Fed's pace of raising interest rates, so that once the Fed raises interest rates or trigges a temporary increase in the US dollar, the suppression of commodities will weaken.

Cotton picking progress is relatively slow, pport capacity is still tense.

Since November, heavy rainfall has occurred in some parts of the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin due to the major cotton producing areas such as Shihezi, Akesu, Kashi, Hotan and other places in Xinjiang. Cotton picking is relatively slow this year.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, as of November 18th, the national cotton picking rate was 95%, down 7.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 5 percentage points over the past four years, and a nationwide sales rate of 82.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, but 2 percentage points higher than in the past four years.

The United States Department of Agriculture released a report that as of November 20th, the United States cotton picking progress was 67%, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous week, but 1 percentage points lower than the same period last year, compared with the past five years average level by 10 percentage points, picking progress is not as good as in previous years.

Judging from the domestic railway freight pport situation, since the second half of the year, the domestic railway pport volume has increased rapidly, and the turnover mileage has also increased significantly, and the railway freight pport has become relatively tight.

In December, in order to ensure winter heating in the north, the pport policy of the country may be further tilted to coal and so on. It is estimated that the railway capacity will still be relatively tight in December.