It Is Estimated That The Key To New Cotton Supply Or Supply Next Year Is To Store And Store.

Recently, Hebei

Market profits are gradually showing and confidence is slowly established.

Many people believe that in the late period of the year, Hebei cotton could have a small rebound process.

1. Cotton

Quietly changing.

This is from two aspects: first, as of May 21st, Hebei cotton spring sowing work is over. Cotton farmers are carrying out post pplant management, such as pplanting and replanting.

The sharp reduction in area this year has become a reality.

According to the data of Hebei Provincial Department of agriculture, the sown area of this year is more than 490 mu, which is 30% less than that of 7 million mu in 2014.

However, some agencies and industry websites believe that the area of Hebei is about 4 million acres this year, which is about 42.8% less than that of last year.

The author also recently went to Cangzhou, Hengshui, Xingtai, Baoding, Handan and other Hebei five cotton areas to carry out the research, said that "100 miles of cotton can not be seen" is not too much, therefore, about the reduction of 42.8% this year, there is still a certain basis.

Therefore, it is estimated that the new cotton supply or supply will be tight next year.

Second, recently, some textile enterprises in Hebei, Shijiazhuang, Baoding and Tangshan reflect that with the accumulation of raw cotton consumption, we now feel that the supply of resources is slightly tight.

For example, a 150 thousand spinning enterprise in Shijiazhuang mainly produces more than 32 pure cotton yarn, and the required cotton is mainly 3128 grade cotton, Xinjiang cotton and SM1-1/32 cotton.

The head of the enterprise said that the recent purchasing managers had been in Xinjiang and the Yellow River for quite a long time, and the Leng was not enough to make up an order of 2000 tons.

In addition, there are a lot of American cotton in Qingdao port, but they do not have quotas in their hands.

It is understood that in recent years, many spinning enterprises, especially those spinning more than 32 branches of cotton, reflect that the quality cotton is not easy to find. People are "thirsty for cotton," and therefore appeal to the state to throw or renew the quota as soon as possible.

The call is high and demand is rising.

2, the news about dumping and storage is heating up gradually.

Also from two aspects: first, call for the state with cotton enterprises.

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Recently, the head of many textile enterprises in Hebei said that the supply of raw cotton has become a tight situation, especially in Xinjiang.

High quality real estate cotton and Australian cotton, Pima cotton and so on.

Second, the question of when, how and how to throw.

Now, a more concentrated view in the Hebei market is that the country will sell in June.

For this reason, the author is also in touch with friends in the development and reform department, but his friend is very secretive about it. He only says "do not listen to rumors and take government documents as the criterion".

It is therefore concluded that there may not be a clear idea about throwing storage at the top.

There are two different points of view about the price throw: first, many industries believe that the price will be 14500-15000 yuan / ton. If so, it will put pressure on cotton enterprises, but it will be beneficial to cotton enterprises and cotton traders.

Second, some people believe that the current level of 13000 yuan / ton (standard level) is maintained, which is conducive to maintaining a stable market.

A more mainstream way of saying "how to throw" is to "bind" with quotas.

If it is really thrown in this way, it is in line with the interests of most of the main bodies. First, the textile enterprises have solved the problem of insufficient supply of foreign cotton; two, the pressure on the sale of cotton will be reduced lightly; three, the reduction of foreign trade friction.

However, at present, all arguments and arguments about dumping and storing are not based on many facts. Finally, we need to wait for definite policy opinions.

"Only staircase is heard and people will not come down" may be a big sight in today's cotton market.

To sum up, since the end of May, not only Hebei's cotton market has been "flying everywhere" because of the "supply and demand situation", but also the cotton market has entered a stage of "at a loss" and looking for directions.

The next step is to decide where to go.

The market is considered to be the biggest uncertainty in 2015, but it is basically regulated.

First of all, throwing and storing will not disrupt the market. At present, it is to solve the cotton demand of textile enterprises.

In this sense, the state is likely to master the rhythm of the storehouse. Secondly, the quality of national cotton reserves is not optimistic. In the process of storehouse sale, it may still be a high quality quilt snatch, a second cotton shoot or a few shots.

Therefore, the market of high-quality cotton or there is still a market.

As for the impact of the current price, or will not cause significant fluctuations.