Ji Lu Yu: Cotton Raw Materials Market Is Increasingly Active

At present,

The price is still high, orders are coming down, and orders are still cautious.

In recent years, the parties have been releasing the news of the sharp decline in cotton planting area in various regions, which is also one of the reasons for the unrest in the cotton market.

In contrast, the price of PET staple is increasing steadily, which brings many panic to the companies producing polyester cotton yarn all the year round.

Recent sales of cotton yarn have improved.

With the willingness to actively purchase raw materials, the cotton raw material market is becoming increasingly active, resulting in a drop in cotton prices and a slight rebound of 50-100 yuan.

In the past two days, the price of polyester on the Internet has dropped to a level of 7950 yuan / ton. However, the actual paction price of polyester staple in Hebei is still at a high level of 8500 yuan / ton, which leads to the increase of 100-200 yuan / ton for polyester cotton yarn at present.

The effect is hard to achieve.

Because the development rate of the downstream prices is slowing down the speed of the development of raw material prices, often the price of grey cloth has not risen yet, and the price of raw materials has come down again; therefore, from the current feedback information, there is no obvious growth in demand, and the downstream textile mills do not accept the willingness to raise the price of polyester cotton yarn, so many textile enterprises are hard to get into the middle, so that they have the idea of adjusting the variety structure.

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In April, international oil prices went up unilaterally, and hit a high level in the first half of May.

From the supply side, the biggest benefit comes from the decline in US shale oil output growth.

EIA has already expressed its views in the monthly report in early April. In May 2015, the output of shale oil in the United States will decline. The output from 6 to September will probably decrease slightly, but the output will rise again in 2016.

The sharp rise in shale oil output in the United States is a driving force for the sharp fall in oil prices in the early period, and the decline in output growth or the decline in absolute output has brought breathing opportunities to the market.

In fact, since April, the US crude oil output has basically remained stable, coupled with the improvement of refinery operating rate. Cushing stock last week showed its first decline since last November, which directly supported WTI oil price.

From the demand side, the current global spring out of the refinery overhaul season, the consumption season is imminent.

By region, refineries in Europe and the United States and the Mediterranean have passed the peak of maintenance, especially in the United States, where refinery operating rates are above 90%, and Asia's maintenance peak is in June, but it is not far off.

Summer is the peak season for car driving in Europe and America, and oil consumption will increase.

Summer is also the peak for oil generation in Saudi Arabia and Japan, especially Saudi Arabia, where it often burns crude oil in summer.

In addition, global geopolitics is in a turbulent period. This is one of the by-products of low oil prices in the Middle East oil producing countries. Whether Saudi Arabia's military operations in Yemen or Libya's domestic conflicts may result in a reduction in supply.

Therefore, the probability of global crude oil strengthening at later stage is larger.