A Shares In June Were "A Narrow Escape From Death".

< p > there is a doubling of the lifting of the ban shares in June, 100 new IPO eyeing, the next good combination of continuous boxing, under the policy of mysterious hands repeatedly support.

At the two thousand point, what will be the final outcome of the game between the bottom of the policy and the bottom of the market? < /p >

< p > < strong > issuance of new shares: it is already in the "/strong" /p.

< p > the issue of IPO is always the key to the market.

Although since April, every Thursday and Friday, there will often be news of new shares opening, causing a big dive, but it is always a "false alarm" afterwards.

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< p > in fact, with the relevant measures adopted by the SFC in March 21st to improve the IPO reform, by May 9th, the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges had basically completed the adjustment of the IPO rules. It is expected that most of the preparatory work for IPO has been implemented step by step, and the hard conditions for the second round of IPO restarting this year are basically available.

It is widely expected that the new stock market will be opened in June. Therefore, the volume of recent market turnover has been shrinking and the market sentiment is very strong.

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"P >" and the management also noticed the heart of the market, and gave the market a "prescription".

In May 19th, the SFC made it clear that from June to the end of the year, 100 new shares were planned to be issued, and the boot of the IPO was finally landed.

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After P, management clearly defined the rhythm of IPO.

Zhang Xiaojun, spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in May 30th that the trial board of the motherboard (including small and medium board) and the trial board of the gem will be held once a week, each meeting roughly arranging 2 enterprises.

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< p >, but for the management's position, the market does not seem to be "grateful". In the first trading week of June, the stock index fell 0.45%, and second consecutive weekly lines were lost.

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< p > Zhang Guangwen, a Hang Seng strategy analyst, believes that the reduction of new shares has little impact on the market.

He analyzed that although only about 100 companies were issued in 7 months, which was much lower than market expectations, the market's worries about expansion were eliminated, and it helped stabilize the market in the short term. However, the monthly scale of about 14 funds totaling 20 billion yuan, compared with the current 336 pre disclosure and more than 600 stock stocks, could not solve the problem of IPO, and completely deviated from the long-term system construction of registration system.

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< p > Zhang Guangwen expects that in the next 7 months, the measures to narrow the scale of issuance will lead to new hype in the imbalance between supply and demand, and at the same time, most of the IPO companies will lose patience and financing opportunities.

If the IPO expansion of new shares slows down, it will probably boost other refinancing accelerates, and the issue of refinancing is still the pressure of future market.

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< p > < strong > IPO restart: it is not conducive to small and medium-sized boards and < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > gem, /a > /strong > /p >

< p > Zhang Guangwen judged that the IPO restart of the new round of shares will have negative effects on the diversion of A share funds.

According to the current situation of all new shares, it is estimated that the size of the stock IPO will be about 3500-3800 billion yuan, which will have a diversion effect on the A share market.

In addition, the new funds for rolling speculation after its listing will also have a diversion effect on the two tier market funds.

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< p > in addition, Zhang Guangwen pointed out that the IPO restart of new shares will be more unfavorable to small and medium sized boards and gem.

As the new stock market is mainly based on small and medium capitalization stocks, the IPO market has a more significant impact on the diversion of the original small and medium capitalization stock funds, on the other hand, it has reduced the scarcity of the original small and medium capitalization stock and changed the supply-demand relationship.

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< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > policy easing > /a > growth stability and market valuation < /strong > /p >

"P > Guotai Junan believes that the easing of policy in June is being recognized, and the evidence of growth stabilization is more direct. These two factors will trigger the market valuation.

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< p > Guotai Junan pointed out that the main line of the current round of micro stimulus policies is moderate relaxation of real estate regulation plus positive fiscal + monetary moderate loose + bonus reform, and the micro stimulus package is still being continuously launched.

A share investors should take advantage of the policy and growth expectations double steering express to enhance the active allocation of positions.

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< p > CICC also recognizes "dangerous May" and is worth looking forward to in June.

It points out that the government has realized the pressure of economic downturn and is working hard to take measures to help boost market sentiment.

If the economic downturn has not been significantly curbed, there will be no greater policy changes in the middle of the year.

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< p > China Merchants Securities is obviously more optimistic. It points out that with the May economic data released in June, the effect of stimulus measures and the reform dividend will come down in succession, which will bring the market back to 2100 points.

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In the short queue of P, the securities are not "fighting alone", but also the heavyweight brokerages such as Haitong Securities (600837) and Huaxin securities.

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< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > market < /a > bottom will be "no matter what" /strong < /p >

"P >" Anxin securities "explained the four reasons for its empty bearish: the peak season is not strong, the performance of the high frequency economic data is weak in May, the real estate sales growth rate continues to decline, the housing price loosening signs appear further, the investment pressure will continue to continue, the enterprise profit will continue to descend, the A share first quarter net profit growth has dropped from last year's 14% to 8%, and will further decline, but compared with the 12 times average value last year, the A share's 11 times valuation still needs to be adjusted; the money supply has not obviously relaxed; the interest rate level adjustment is not enough, cannot support the stock market valuation.

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< p > > the bottom of the policy is now at the bottom of the market. "Haitong Securities analysis shows that from the historical perspective, the bottom of the market often lags behind the bottom of the policy and is closer to the bottom of the economy.

In the 2011, 2012 and 2013 of history, the market has deducted the situation of falling economic growth, policy making and stock market rebound. The basic feature is "first policy bottom, market bottom and last economic bottom".

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< p > Huaxin securities is even more pessimistic. It believes that the A shares will be "intact" in June, and that IPO will be restarted and cashed. The ECB may reduce the impact of major refinancing rates on emerging markets in June, which may become the last straw to support A shares.

It gives investors the suggestion that "wait patiently and wait for the quality stocks to fall out of the time to buy absolute value".

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< p > data show that in June, the total market value of restricted shares was 157 billion 523 million yuan, an increase of 96 billion 62 million yuan over May, an increase of over 100%.

That is to say, in June, the market value of restricted shares was doubled, which is currently the third highest in the year.

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< p > it is worth mentioning that 29 of the GEM companies have lifted the restricted shares and the total market value of the lifting of the ban is 28 billion 122 million yuan, which is the third highest level for GEM companies to lift the market value in a single month.

In addition, the restricted shares of 27 small and medium-sized board companies were lifted and the total market value of lifting the ban was 72 billion 271 million yuan, the highest monthly value since June 2013.

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