The Growth Rate Of Textile And Garment Industry Showed A Sharp Decline.

In 1-8 months of this year, over 20988 billion yuan and 72 billion 660 million yuan of profit were achieved in the textile enterprises above the scale of scale, with a year-on-year increase of 15.34% and 5.34% respectively, the lowest level in 02 years.

The clothing industry achieved 523 billion 200 million yuan in revenue and a total profit of 211,2 billion yuan, representing an increase of 18.4% and 11.03% compared to the same period last year. The textile industry achieved a revenue of 13105 billion yuan and a total profit of 46 billion 830 million yuan, an increase of 16.47% and 13.7% respectively over the previous year.

We believe that due to the slowdown in export and domestic sales and the low price of chemical fiber, the growth rate of industrial efficiency will continue to decline in the future. Total exports of textiles and clothing will increase by 7.7% US dollars in 1-8 months (down 8.9 percentage points from 1-7 months), of which clothing and textiles exported 703.7 and 44 billion 900 million US dollars, respectively, up by 0.84% and 20.61% over the same period of last year, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2, 0.7 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from July to July.

The slowdown in export growth is mainly due to the economic downturn in Europe and the United States.

As Europe and the United States continue to decline, the growth rate of exports in the future may still decline. We can not rule out the possibility of negative growth in the future. According to our understanding, the current slowdown in domestic garment retail industry; the price of chemical fiber, including viscose and spandex, is still in the doldrums, and it will be difficult for some time to change, and the chemical fiber enterprises will continue to travel in darkness. In 08 years, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in textile industry has further declined, and the fixed assets investment in the whole industry has been 176 billion 140 million yuan in 1-8 months, up only 10.6% from the same period last year, the lowest since 2000, and 1.7 percentage points lower than that in July.

From the sub sectors, the investment volume of textile industry, clothing and chemical fiber respectively reached 101 billion 200 million yuan, 55 billion 670 million yuan and 19 billion 240 million yuan, representing an increase of 4.9%, 19.5% and 18.5% respectively, representing an increase of 14.4 percentage points, 17.7 percentage points and 8.3 percentage points respectively over the 07 years.

From the perspective of investment in fixed assets, we will see that the trend of industrial efficiency growth will be more obvious in the future. We are optimistic about the brand clothing enterprises and the leading enterprises in the management mode. We should focus on seven wolves (12.15, -0.17, -1.38%, bar), Weixing share (10.30, -0.10, -0.96%, bar), American bond dress (25, -0.01, -0.04%), Yantai spandex (23.22, -0.03, -0.13%, bar), and wedding bird (13.69,0.03,0.22%).

At present, the company's share price has reflected the slowing down of domestic consumption, and the slowdown is not decreasing. Excellent brand enterprises still deserve attention.

According to the national statistics, textile enterprises in scale above 1-8 reached 20988 yuan in revenue and 72 billion 660 million yuan in profits in the same period last year, representing an increase of 15.34% and 5.34% respectively, the lowest level in 02 years. The clothing industry achieved 523 billion 200 million yuan and a total profit of 211,2 billion yuan, up 18.4% and 11.03% respectively.

The main reasons leading to the decline of the current industrial efficiency growth are: 1, the growth rate of textile and garment exports has dropped; 2, domestic sales growth has slowed down; 3, the price drop of chemical fiber products has led to a sharp reduction in the efficiency of the chemical fiber industry; 4, appreciation, labor costs, production costs, environmental protection requirements, capital shortage, overcapacity and other factors have been affecting the operation and efficiency of enterprises for a long time.

As the above factors will continue to affect the operation of the industry in the next period of time, we believe that the growth rate of industrial efficiency will continue to decline in the 4 quarter, and the annual revenue growth will be close to 10%.

Textile and garment export growth continued to decline, the downward trend continued in the year.

In the 03 years -06, the export growth rate of the textile industry has always been above 20%, 07 years to 18.8%, and the growth rate has slowed down in 08 years. If the result is calculated according to the RMB, the 1.4% negative growth will appear for the first time in 08 years.

According to the statistical results of the textile industry association, the total export volume was 115 billion 270 million US dollars in 1-8 months, the growth rate was 7.7% (the growth rate was 8.9 percentage points lower than that in 1-7 months), of which clothing and textiles were exported 703.7 and 44 billion 900 million US dollars respectively, representing an increase of 0.84% and 20.61% respectively, representing a decrease of 1.2, 0.7 and 0.7 percentage points respectively compared with that in July.

In August, exports to the United States continued to decline, while garment exports slowed down in July. But in August, it increased to -7.4% last month, while textile growth continued to slow down. Exports to the EU continued to grow, but both textile and clothing growth slowed down (chart 7).

The downturn in exports to the US was mainly affected by the economic downturn in the United States, and the EU economy was also affected by the sub debt crisis, which led to a decline in export growth to the EU.

Considering the possible economic situation in Europe and the United States, we can not rule out the possibility of a decline in textile and clothing exports in the future: the crisis in Europe and the United States has led to a decline in foreign demand, which is the key reason for the decline in the growth rate of textile and clothing exports.

Although China's textile industry has the world's competitiveness in the first place, it is still useless to face the downturn in demand. Keeping the growth of export volume in 1-8 months has already reflected the competitive strength of the world's largest industry. The national macro economic research group of the Golden State believes that the European and American economies may not recover until 2010, and that the textile and garment export is stable and growing when the economic recovery in Europe and the United States comes. From the perspective of the development history of the world textile industry, the global production base always shifts to the lowest comprehensive production cost. From 06 years, orders for low-end products have gradually shifted to India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia, and the production of high-end products has gradually shifted to the mainland.

Therefore, the golden age of China's textile industry has already passed, and the possibility of high speed growth of 20% in the future is unlikely.

The growth rate of domestic consumer market has been reduced. From the statistics point of view, 08 years of Domestic Garment Retailing still maintained a relatively fast growth. However, according to our field survey of enterprises and markets, the situation is not as optimistic as the statistics. From the market perspective, the discount of brand clothing enterprises has exceeded the previous years since June.

We believe that in the case of macroeconomic slowdown, inflation and the reduction of wealth effect, the growth rate of domestic apparel retail is likely to decline.

According to the results of the first textile network research, wholesale and retail sales of clothing accounted for only about 35% of the total retail sales of clothing, and the middle and low-end clothing, mainly wholesale, a large number of inventory products processing, and a large number of clothing discount sales may lead to high statistics.