Research And Forecast Analysis Of China'S Cotton Market In 2012

Research and forecast analysis of China's cotton market in 2012

At present, the biggest supporting role in China still comes from the collection and storage, which can be divided into two aspects, one is the collection and storage of the current year, and the two is the establishment of the new year's purchase and storage price.

After the end of the purchase and storage, there will be a shortage of high-grade cotton that can be circulated in China, and the market forecast for the new year's purchase and storage price is generally considered to be up.

In addition, the reduction of planting area in the new year will also be beneficial to the market.

In this sense, the situation seems to be more optimistic.

However, behind the optimistic expectations, there is a surge of undercurrents. The situation of global cotton supply exceeds demand will continue. A large number of foreign cheap cotton (especially India cotton) is hitting the domestic market, and the slow recovery of cotton textile downstream consumption will hamper the uplink of cotton prices. Therefore, the current domestic cotton market is struggling fiercely.

Analysis of market conditions:

1, although the futures contract for May has fallen after a fall, the current price still has certain profits for the guaranteed enterprises.

2, although the liquidity has been recovered and stored, the quota of about 2000000 tons (the impact of cheap imported cotton) and some of the last year's cotton sales will play a certain role in the market.

3, at present, futures warehouse receipts increase faster, forming a certain market pressure for futures contracts in May.

4, the downstream textile industry is still stagnant.

5, various technical indicators of futures prices have weakened, especially the futures contract price in May has fallen below the key 60 day moving average.

Forecast: before the withdrawal of the futures contract in May, the cotton price will be difficult to achieve. We expect that the May contract will fluctuate between 20400-21400 before the withdrawal of the futures contract in May, and the September contract will fluctuate between 21100-22100.